Bilibili
(BILI US)
四季度业绩整体符合预期，持续关注商业化发展进程
In-line 22Q4 results; watch Bilibili’s monetization progress
BUY (maintain) |
投资要点/Investment Thesis
投资要点/Investment Thesis
Bilibili于近期发布四季度业绩公告，4Q22总收入为61亿元，毛利为12.5亿元，毛利率达20.3%，超彭博一致预期（20.1%），环比持续提升。Non-GAAP下运营费用率进一步收窄至42.7%，Non-GAAP净利润率进一步收窄至-21%。
运营数据稳健增长，社区生态持续繁荣。本季度BILIBILI MAU达3.26亿 (yoy+20%)，DAU达9280万(yoy+29%)，日均使用时长依旧维持在96分钟，日均视频播放量同比增加77%，Story Mode及传统PUGV模式均保持较快的增速。
22Q4 operating metrics improved as community ecosystem gained momentum
Bilibili announced 22Q4 results recently with revenue at RMB6.1bn and gross profit at RMB1.25bn; a qoq higher gross profit margin at 20.3% surpassed the 20.1% projected by Bloomberg consensus. The company narrowed non-GAAP operating expense ratio to 42.7% and non-GAAP net loss margin to 21%. Operating data improved steadily while its community ecosystem gained traction. MAU reached 326m in the quarter (yoy+20%), and DAU came to 92.8m (yoy+29%). Average daily user time was maintained at 96 minutes, while average daily video playback volume rose 77% yoy; both Story Mode and traditional PUGV maintained fast growth.
各项业务收入端基本符合预期
-游戏：本季度游戏收入达11.5亿元(yoy-11.5%)，较3季度有所下降，由于本季度缺少新游戏推出所致。B站游戏坚持“自研精品，全球发行”的发展战略，预计2023年H1国内上线2款游戏，出海6款游戏。
-广告：本季度广告收入达15.1亿元（yoy-5%），较3季度稳健增长。且潜力较大，正在成为广告主的首选平台。受宏观环境回暖影响，我们预计BILIBILI 23年第一季度广告业务收入将有较大恢复，yoy+22%至12.7亿。建议持续关注广告恢复情况及B站重点品类（汽车/母婴/家装家电）等市占率提升情况。
-VAS业务表现出色，本季度yoy+24%至23.5亿元，年内整体增长强劲，受益于商业化能力提升。2022年四季度，B站包括直播服务、大会员及其他增值服务在内的付费用户数量有所增加，MPU yoy+15%至2810万。
Ads and VAS performed well in Q4; segmental incomes basically met expectations
•Gaming: revenue in 22Q4 reached RMB1.15bn, down 11.5% yoy and down qoq, due to a lack of new game launches. In line with the segment’s development strategy of self-developed quality products and global distribution, it plans to launch two domestic games and six overseas games in 23H1E.
•Advertising: revenue reached RMB1.51bn, down 5% yoy but up from Q3. Advertising prospects are strong as Bilibili is becoming the platform of choice for many advertisers. Driven by a macro recovery, we expect ad revenue will recover strongly to RMB1.27bn in 23Q1E, implying yoy+22%. We suggest investors keep track of ad recovery and market share increases in core categories like autos, baby care, home improvement and appliances.
•VAS: the business did well in Q4 with revenue at RMB2.35bn, yoy+24%. 2022 tracked strong growth through the year on improving monetization. The number of paid subscribers increased (combining livestreaming, premium membership and other value-added services) and monthly paying users rose 15% yoy to 28.1m in Q4.
降本增效成果显著，带动运营亏损环比大幅收窄。本季度毛利率持续改善，进一步提升至20.3%。同时Non-GAAP销售/行政/研发费用率环比均有收窄，经营效率逐步提升。根据CEO陈睿表示，未来将提高在核心领域的执行力度，在打造友好、包容的社区的同时继续收紧开支，精简组织，提高对商业化的重视，以适应不断变化的市场，确保财务目标实现。
Bilibili will continue to focus on drilling down cost and raising efficiency
Cost reduction and efficiency improvements were remarkable in Q4: they led to sharply reduced operating losses qoq while gross profit margin improved to 20.3%. Non-GAAP sales, administration and R&D expense ratio narrowed qoq, while operating efficiency improved gradually. CEO Chen Rui said the company will step up execution in core business areas and will continue to drill down expenses and streamline the company. It will focus on monetization and ensure that financial targets are met even as it builds a friendly and inclusive community to adapt to a changing market, he added.
增发股份回购可转债，资产负债结构进一步优化
1月12日，哔哩发布公告，成功发行1534万股ADS，筹资4亿美元，主要用途包括：1）回购公司2026年12月到期的可转换票据，回购本金总额为3.85亿美元，支付金额为3.31亿美元。2）剩余所得款（约6880万美金）用作补充公司在22Q4回购若干可转换票据后的现金储备，以及用作其他营运资金用途。本次可转债回购完成后，BILIBILI 2026年12月到期可转债剩余面值仅剩4.5亿美元，整体流动性得到进一步优化。
Issued more shares to buy back converts; optimizing asset-liability structure
Bilibili announced on 12 Jan that it issued 15.34m ADS and raised USD400m, which it will use to: (1) repurchase its convertible bonds due in December 2026, where the aggregate repurchase principal will be USD385m, with about USD331m payable; and (2) the remaining proceeds (of about USD68.8m) will supplement cash reserves depleted after buying back convertible notes in 22Q4, and other working capital purposes. On completion of the repurchase, the remaining face value of Bilibili’s convertible bonds due in December 2026 will only be USD450m, improving total liquidity.
投资建议/Investment Ideas
投资建议：维持“买入”评级。我们认为，BILIBILI毛利持续提升，降本增效结果持续体现，资产负债结构持续优化。考虑到公司持续优化收入组成，优化低毛利业务，或影响短期收入增长表现，但有望提速公司利润发展节奏，我们预测公司23-24年收入分别为247/282亿（前值254/291亿元），新增25年预测310亿元，Non-GAAP下净利润提升至-38/-11亿元（前值-56/-25亿元），新增25年预测7亿元，维持“买入”评级。
Valuation and risks
We expect Bilibili will maintain its gross profit uptrend on cost management and efficiency upgrades, while optimizing its asset and liability structure. We take into account its efforts to optimize the revenue mix and businesses with low gross margins, which could impact short-term revenue growth, although it would speed up longer-term profit growth. Hence, we lower our revenue forecast to RMB24.7/28.2bn in 2023/24E (previously RMB25.4bn/ 29.1bn), and include our 2025E forecast at RMB31bn. We now expect the company will post non-GAAP net losses of RMB3.8bn/1.1bn in 2023/24E (previously RMB5.6bn/2.5bn losses), and include our 2025E forecast at RMB700m. We maintain our BUY rating.
风险提示：降本增效进程不达预期；纳入港股通进程不达预期；MAU增速不达预期；DAU增速不达预期；市场环境大幅波动；
Risks include: weaker cost management and efficiency upgrades than expected; worse-than-expected Hong Kong Stock Connect inclusion progress; lower-than-expected MAU and/or DAU growth; and market volatility.
Email: [email protected]
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