投资要点/Investment Thesis

公司发布业绩快报，预计22Q4收入103.1亿，同增24.5%，归母净利5.1亿，同增170.5%；22全年收入399.5亿，同增24.9%，归母净利27.78亿，同减6.1%。收入增长得益于新增产能释放，相关纸制品及木浆的产、销量增加，利润端受原料成本、人工、管理成本影响承压。22年业绩符合预期，达成股权激励目标。

In-line 2022E results met incentive target; Q4E profit +171% yoy; 2022E -6% yoy

Sunpaper released preliminary earnings results with 22Q4E revenue at RMB10.31bn, up 24.5% yoy, and net profit at RMB510m, up 170.5% yoy; which brought 2022E revenue to RMB39.95bn, up 24.9% yoy, and net profit at RMB2.78bn, down 6.1% yoy. We attribute revenue growth to its incremental production capacity releases, higher production and sales in paper products and wood pulp. Profit was under pressure on the impact of raw material, labor and management costs. All in, 2022 performance was in line with analyst expectations and fulfilled the company’s equity incentive target.

受益下游需求改善，文化纸价格有望稳步提升。3月起逐步进入教辅材料招标季，公司将自2月15日起对所有涂布和非涂布文化纸价格提价100元/吨，同时自3月1日起，在上述调价基础上继续上调100元/吨，需求改善有望带动提价落地。成本端来看，据隆众资讯，2月17-23日针叶浆均价6993元/吨（较上周-50元/吨）、阔叶浆价格5821元/吨（较上周-164元/吨），智利Arauco公布23年3月份报盘，其中银星920美元/吨（较2月持平），金星770美元/吨（较2月持平），阔叶浆明星730美元/吨（较2月报价减少20美元/吨）。伴随浆价稳步回落，叠加后续提价落地，文化纸盈利空间或将修复。

Falling pulp costs and rising graphic paper prices in light of downstream recovery 

As the auxiliary teaching materials market enters the bidding season in March, Sunpaper raised all prices of its coated and uncoated graphic papers by RMB100/t as of 15 Feb 2023 and by a further RMB100/t as of 1 March, on expectation of a demand recovery. Coniferous pulp cost averaged RMB6,993/t during 17-23 Feb, RMB50/t lower wow, while hardwood pulp was priced at RMB5,821/t, RMB164/t lower wow, according to Longzhong Information. Chile’s Arauco announced March 2023 price quotations with Silver Star at USD920/t (flat mom), Gold Star at USD770/t (flat mom) and Broadleaf Bright Star at USD730/t (USD20/t lower mom). Falling pulp prices and the implementation of higher paper prices look set to restore graphic paper profit margins.

原料自给率稳步提升，产品结构多元，经营稳健性凸显。目前公司纸、浆合计产能已突破1000万吨，其中纸品年产能在580wt，自制浆年产能435wt，漂白木浆自给率已经提升至60%左右。此外，浆价高企期间，带动公司溶解浆等木浆系产品景气度好转，22H1山东、老挝基地三条溶解浆生产线均实现产销量历史新高，多元化产品配置确保公司经营稳健。

Stabilization: rising raw materials self-sufficiency and diverse product structure 

Sunpaper’s combined paper and pulp production capacity amounts to over 10m tpa, comprising 5.80m tpa paper products and 4.35m tpa self-produced pulp, with its bleached wood pulp self-sufficiency ratio rising to about 60%. When pulp prices are high, its dissolving pulp and other wood pulp products become more lucrative. The company’s three dissolving pulp production lines at its Shandong and Laos bases achieved record production and sales volumes in 22H1. The diversification of its product structure has increased operational stability.

坚持推进创新研发工作，差异化产品力引领行业发展方向。作为行业龙头，公司努力实现技术突破，溶解浆团队在天丝溶解浆研发方面已取得进展，醋酸纤维溶解浆、微晶纤维素等产品研发工作逐步推进。为满足不同客户需求，新品研发和原料替代方面均取得突破，高克重双胶纸实现批量生产、食品淋膜原纸在高端市场广受认可，差异化产品优势有望保持。

Committed to innovative R&D as industry growth requires product differentiation 

Sunpaper strives for technological breakthroughs in its role as industry leader. Its dissolving pulp team made R&D progress in Tencel dissolving pulp, while R&D on cellulose acetate dissolving pulp, microcrystalline cellulose and other products are coming along. In order to fulfill the requirements of diverse customers, tech breakthroughs are necessary to drive new product development and raw material substitution. The company has achieved heavyweight offset paper mass production and its coated food-grade base paper is widely recognized in the high-end market. We expect Sunpaper will maintain its competitive advantage in product differentiation.

林浆纸一体化布局，提供长期增长动能。公司拥有山东、广西、老挝三大基地，截至22H1山东基地拥有45wt文化纸和7wt特种纸产能，不断升级生产设施；广西基地已形成北海+南宁双园区协同发展新格局，北海园区截至22H1拥有55wt文化纸、12wt生活用纸及配套100wt自制浆产能，并于22年开始实施15wt生活用纸项目，进一步优化该园区产品配置；广西基地南宁园区继续推进525wt林浆纸一体化项目，其中一期将建设年产220wt高档包装纸生产线、年产50wt本色化学浆产线、年产15wt漂白化学浆生产线（技改）。截至22H1，老挝基地已形成150wt纸、浆年产能，林地作为稀缺资源，公司将逐步扩大在老挝的林地建设面积，短期内实现每年新增1w公顷左右的种植计划，并逐步加大种植力度，有效提升生产原料自给率。

Integrated 3-pronged business of forestry, pulp and paper drives long-term growth 

Sunpaper has three production bases in Shandong, Guangxi and Laos. Current production capacities at its Shandong base are 450kt of graphic paper and 70kt of special paper as of 22H1, while it continues to upgrade the production facilities. 

Meanwhile, it initiated the coordinated development of the Beihai and Nanning industrial parks in its Guangxi base. The Beihai park has capacities for 550kt of graphic paper and 120kt of household paper, with support capacity for 1m tons of self-produced pulp. The company began to implement a 150kt household paper project in 2022 to optimize the park’s production configuration. The Nanning park is driving a 5.25m-ton integrated forest-pulp-paper project, for which the first phase will build a 2.2m tpa high-grade packaging paper production line, a 500ktpa natural chemical pulp production line and a 150ktpa bleached chemical pulp production line (on a technical restructure). 

Paper and pulp production capacity at its Laos base amounts to 1.5m tpa. As forest land is a scarce resource, Sunpaper has short-ranging plans to increase its forest plantation land for production by about 10,000ha per year. This is part of its efforts to gradually increase plantation to improve its self-sufficient production ratio in raw materials.

投资建议/Investment Ideas