Jiangshan Oupai Door
(603208 CH)
经营韧性凸显，站在新一轮成长起点
Upgrade to BUY: operational resilience boosts Oupai’s positioning as it approaches a new growth cycle
BUY (from ACCUMULATE) |
投资要点/Investment Thesis
投资要点/Investment Thesis
公司近两年收入结构快速优化，对应成长模型由工程直营加速向代理及经销切换。此前我们以保交楼主线首推工程占比较高的江山欧派，当下站在产业环境及模式精进的新成长起点，继续坚定看好代理/经销成长潜力，具体来看：
Enhanced revenue model better positions Oupai for presold market boost
The company has sharply optimized its income structure over the past two years. It accelerated its incremental revenue growth model from direct engineering services toward agency and distribution. Within the core presold housing market, we had previously recommended Oupai Doors for its high proportion of engineering projects. With its enhanced business model, the company is approaching a new growth cycle in an improving industry environment. We remain bullish about the growth potential of its agency and distribution businesses:
第一、工程代理广度深度双升，进入订单释放期
首先、工程代理较直营在受益保交楼同时显著改善账期压力，优化资金结构；其次、①从规模看，20年代理商100家+，截至23年1月底已有400+家，23年或将继续增长；②从深度看，伴随合作深入代理商活跃度显著提升，规模效应快速释放，逐步覆盖非地产客户；22Q3代理收入同增近140%系代理商订单。展望23年扩宽度挖深度，有望显著驱动大盘增长。
Engineering agents: growing business and widening scope; order release cycle
•In comparison with direct services, Oupai’s engineering agency business benefits more from the presold housing market. Agency sales also reduce accounts cycle pressure while optimizing the capital structure.
•We expect its agent pool to continue to grow in 2023E: from over-100 agents in 2020 and over-400 as of end-January 2023. Strengthening cooperative ties has led agent activity to intensify, leading to a fast rising scale, while business coverage has also widened to include non-real estate customers.
•Revenue from agents increased nearly 140% yoy in 22Q3, driven by orders. We expect to see the business expand as well as widen in scope. We believe it will catalyze the real estate market.
第二、经销加盟量变带来质变，胜在无形之中
依靠规模化生产发挥成本优势，经销商渠道订单量持续增长，带动毛利率提升；近年公司大力拓展包括家装在内的各类经销渠道，22年前三季度数量均保持较快增长，自2020年的3000+家拓展至超2.2万家；量变引起质变，提升市占率于无形，真正建立终端销售通路，为远期直连消费者奠定基础。
Dealers: quantitative scale-up brought about qualitative improvements
Scale production enables full play of Oupai’s cost advantages. Increasing order volumes in its dealer channel have driven gross margin expansion and the company has greatly expanded coverage of its distribution channels in recent years, including redecoration. The number of dealers grew rapidly from over 3,000 in 2020 to over 22,000 in 22Q1-3, a quantitative increase that has brought intangible qualitative improvements such as a growing market share. It also established terminal sales channels and that has strengthened the fundamentals of customer engagement for the long term.
此外，精益管理提升制造能力，成本优化仍有潜力。
公司成本管控持续精进：生产端效率提升、规模效应释放后，单位分摊成本下降；采购端伴随采购规模提升，公司议价能力有望增强；设计方面，材质及工艺不断优化、迭代，推行类标品，降本增效仍有空间。
Other drivers: lean management; manufacturing capacity and cost optimization
The company’s cost control continues to improve: higher production efficiency and scale economies have led to lower cost per unit. In making procurements, larger orders would increase its bargaining power. In its design business, iteration and optimization of materials and processes enable the implementation of standardized label products, which expands its cost-cutting and efficiency improvement potential.
行业层面，2023年地产竣工预期好于2022年，行业至暗时刻或已过。公司基本面扎实，多轮周期下收入端仍彰显较强韧性；公司主要销售渠道之一为工程渠道，伴随保交楼项目推进以及金融支持房地产16条等系列利好政策出台，或将助推工程业务增长。
New hope for China’s presold housing market: we expect better deliveries in 2023E
We believe that the darkest period in China’s real estate industry has passed. We expect real estate project completions in 2023E to outperform 2022. Oupai’s fundamentals are solid, in our view, with a resilient multi-cycle revenue model. As China strives to aid presold housing completions with a series of supportive policies, such as the 16-point real estate measures, this could boost the growth of China’s engineering business, which is one of Oupai’s main sales channels.
2021年全国木门行业总产值达到1603亿元，据《中国木门行业发展白皮书》预测，2022年全国木门行业销售收入将达到2102亿元，目前公司作为产业龙头市占率约2%，伴随渠道不断深入、下沉，品牌认知度逐步提升，未来集中度提升带来空间可观。公司当下工程代理及经销业务预计增速较快，叠加高性价比产品及运营优化，有望打开第三轮成长曲线。
Wooden doors: market leader Oupai set to increase share of growing industry
China’s total output from its wooden doors industry amounted to RMB160.3bn in 2021, while sales revenue came to RMB210.2bn in 2022, according to a white paper on wooden door industry development. Industry leader Oupai’s market share is currently about 2%. As it expands its business and widens its channel coverage to lower-tier cities, we believe brand recognition will increase. Rising market concentration in the future would also increase Oupai’s growth potential. We expect its engineering agency and distribution businesses to grow fast; combined with cost-effective products and operational optimization, we expect it will open a third growth driver.
投资建议/Investment Ideas
维持盈利预测，上调至“买入”评级。
公司转变发展思路全渠道深入布局，龙头市占率提升可期。从聚焦头部客户转变为深入布局全渠道，通过工程代理商，既可对接地产客户，也可拓展城投、酒店、医院、学校等多元客户群体，优质客户及销售品类增加。我们看好公司渠道结构更加健康，优质战略客户逐步放量，叠加地产政策催化，保交楼资金落地加快项目交付节奏，大宗业务有望改善。
我们预计公司23-24年归母净利分别为4.5、5.2亿，PE分别为22X、19X，选取同行业可比公司欧派家居、箭牌家居，同时考虑公司22年低基数下23年增速预计较高，给予23年PE区间24~26.5x，对应目标价78.7~86.9元，上调至“买入”评级。
Valuation and risks
Aided by its development strategy rethink, we believe Oupai’s market share leadership will increase. Its major customer focus evolved into an omnichannel buildout, including its engineering agency business. It has not only secured real estate customers, but also diversified and expanded into urban investment projects like hotels, hospitals, schools and other markets. This has increased quality customers and widened sales categories. We believe its channel structure has become healthier. We expect incremental volume increases from strategic quality customers. With the rollout of real estate policy and catalysts such as special loans to aid presold housing completions kick in, we expect project deliveries to pick up pace while the bulk business improves.
We maintain our forecast and upgrade our rating to BUY (from ACCUMULATE). We forecast Oupai’s net profit will arrive at RMB450m/520m in 2023/24E, with PE at 22/19x. Relative to our selected peers Oppein Home Group and Arrow Home Group, and considering Oupai’s low base in 2022 aiding 2023E numbers, our PE range is 24-26.5x for 2023E, corresponding to our price target range of RMB78.7-86.9, and hence, our BUY call.
风险提示：信用减值计提风险；经销商管理风险；行业竞争加剧；渠道拓展不及预期；新房销售及二手房交易不及预期等。
Risks include: credit impairment provisions; dealer management risks; intensifying competition; slower-than-expected channel expansion; and weaker-than-expected new housing sales or resale housing transactions.
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