Zhejiang Xinao Textiles
(603889 CH)
需求复苏订单可期，加速扩产全球布局
We expect order increases for Xinao as demand recovers and it ramps up global production
BUY (maintain) |
投资要点/Investment Thesis
投资要点/Investment Thesis
全球需求稳步恢复，未来或将加速市场渗透
内贸市场方面，国内消费场景逐步复苏，政策红利提振市场信心。内贸市场恢复势头较好，表现优于外贸市场。外贸市场方面，美国消费市场恢复相对较快，经济活跃度较好，基本接近或者回到疫情前水平；欧洲市场中英国、德国、法国等市场较稳健，活跃度好于预期，能源问题削弱当地同行竞争力。
Market penetration could accelerate amid a steady global demand recovery
China and US ahead of the pack: A gradual Chinese consumption recovery, along with policy support, have boosted confidence in the trade market. We believe China’s recovery momentum is pacing ahead of foreign trade markets. Among them, the US has come back faster with economic activity slowly returning to pre-pandemic levels. In Europe, the UK, Germany, France and others are more stable with industrial activity outperforming expectations, while their counterparts have been less competitive due to energy issues.
公司未来将强化国内区域品牌及高端批发市场的份额提升，同时拓展电商客户；国际市场方面，随着供应链不断完善，将进一步开拓日韩、欧美等品牌市场订单。
Penetrating global brand markets: with Xinao expanding its pool of ecommerce customers, we believe the company will expand market share in Chinese regional brands and high-end wholesale markets. As it builds out its global supply chain, expect to see order increases in brand markets like Japan, South Korea, Europe and the US.
行业洗牌推动市场出清，差异化打造强大竞争力
近年来，毛纺行业重新洗牌使小而散的企业逐步被市场淘汰。随着行业集中度提高，公司逆势发展，作为龙头企业优势显著增强。公司是国家工业和信息化部和中国工业经济联合会认定的制造业精梳羊毛纱单项冠军，在装备自动化水平、品质与服务、设计研发、产业链经营等方面展现出优势，未来仍有较大市场份额提升空间。
Industry reshuffle firms market; increasing differentiation raises competitiveness
The reshuffle of the wool spinning industry in recent years has eliminated small scattered players. As market concentration increases, Xinao’s leading advantages have led the company to achieve countertrend growth. As a Chinese champion of the combed wool yarn manufacturing industry, it is recognized by the Industry and Information Technology Ministry and China Federation of Industrial Economics. Xinao’s competitiveness stems from its superiority in equipment automation, quality, services, design, R&D and supply chain management. We see ample headroom for future market share growth.
羊毛业务加速扩产全球布局，持续优化供应链交付能力
公司拟投资建设越南5万锭高档精纺生态纱纺织染整项目，构建纺纱、染色及后整理的毛纺精加工产业链。计划建设期5年，一期2万锭预计2023年开工建设，2025年建设完成并陆续投产；二期3万锭预计2027年建设完成并陆续投产。产能建设有利于公司深化垂直一体化布局，加强对供应链的把控力度和可追溯性，保障订单交付能力。
Across the wool value chain: global expansion and improving delivery capacity
The company plans to invest in constructing a high-end 50,000-spindle worsted ecological yarn and textile dyeing and finishing facility in Vietnam. With this, the company’s wool production value chain would cover spinning, dyeing and finishing. The construction will take five years: phase I with 20,000-spindle capacity starts construction this year and is slated to be completed and to commence operation in 2025E; while phase II with 30,000-spindle capacity should be ready to commence production in 2027E. The capacity buildup would enable vertical integration, enhance supply chain control and traceability, which would raise Xinao’s order delivery capability.
宽带战略横向拓宽产品，探索高附加值领域
公司践行可持续宽带发展战略，基于纺纱主业内进行品类多元化扩容，通过设立宁夏新澳羊绒、收购英国邓肯等举措，开拓羊绒纱线市场空间。
①为现有客户提供更多选择，服饰用纱方面目前公司已新增粗纺/精纺羊绒、粗纺羊毛等，未来将积极开拓半精纺、花式纱等领域；②拓展应用场景，尝试向家纺用、产业用、新材料等高附加值纺织应用领域探索延伸。
Horizontal expansion of product categories; exploring value-added applications
Driven by a sustainable wide-spectrum development strategy, Xinao has diversified and expanded its capacities. From its core business of spinning, the company ventured into cashmere yarn opportunities with the establishment of Ningxia Xinao Cashmere and acquisition of UK-based Todd & Duncan. The two key impacts are:
(1) customers get more options: Xinao added coarse and worsted cashmere, and coarse wool to its apparel yarn choices. It plans to develop semi-worsted and fancy yarns.
(2) more application scenarios: it is exploring more high-value-added textile applications like home textiles, industrial uses and new materials.
积极布局数字化转型，推动管理与流程优化
公司以“智慧工艺、智能制造、智能仓储、智能物流”为核心进行智能工厂规划，实现了数据于全系统间的贯通、全流程体系间的协同、全工序间的流转，促进管理和流程优化。目前公司仍在深化实施围绕部分环节的精细化衔接应用，持续提升经营发展效益。同时，公司积极参与碳足迹项目，导入 ISO 50001 能源管理体系，科学系统地提升节能减排绩效。
Digital restructure and buildout; management and process optimization
The company is planning to have smart factories under a “smart technology, smart manufacturing, smart warehousing, smart logistics” strategy, which will realize whole-system data interconnection, improve whole-process coordination and improve whole-process flows. This will optimize management and processes. Xinao is refining application articulation in certain nodes and improving business development efficiency. In terms of decarbonization projects, it rolled out an ISO 50001 energy management system, which scientifically boosts energy conservation and reduces emissions.
投资建议/Investment Ideas
维持盈利预测，维持“买入”评级。伴随行业复苏与格局向好，公司以产促销显成效，坚持宽带发展战略引领，以科技赋能产品，开拓羊毛纱线在更多领域的应用；羊绒业务有望成为第二增长引擎，实现羊毛羊绒业务双轮驱动。我们预计公司23-24年净利润分别为5.0、6.2亿元，对应PE分别为8、7x。
Valuation and risks
Amid the industry recovery and improving market catalysts, Xinao is ramping up production. It has initiated a broad market development strategy to raise product technological competitiveness and develop more wool yarn applications. As its cashmere business strengthens, it could provide a second growth driver to its core wool business. We maintain our forecast of RMB498m/624m net profit in 2023/24E, with PE at 8x/7x. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.
风险提示：羊毛、羊绒等原材料价格波动风险；汇率波动风险；产能释放不及预期等风险。
Risks include: price fluctuations of raw materials such as wool and cashmere; FX volatility; and worse-than-expected production capacity ramp-up.
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