Miniso Group
(9896 HK)
品牌升级策略初见成效，国内外加速开店步伐
Initiating coverage: Dec 2022 quarter reflects early results of brand upgrade plan; expedited global store openings
TP:HKD50.00 BUY (Initiation) |
投资要点/Investment Thesis
投资要点/Investment Thesis
事件：
北京时间2023年2月28日，名创优品（9896.HK）发布2023财年第二季度经营数据报告。公司2QFY23整体收入24.9亿元，较去年同期同比下滑10.0%；分地区来看，2QFY23公司国内收入15.1亿元，同比下降26.6%；海外收入9.9亿元，同比大幅增长37.5%。
FY23Q2 revenue came in lower yoy: China down 27% vs foreign markets up 38%
Highlights: Miniso released operating data for FY23Q2 (Oct-Dec 2022) at the end of February, with revenue falling 10.0% yoy to RMB2.49bn: China generated 26.6% yoy less at RMB1.51bn, while foreign markets climbed 37.5% yoy to RMB990m.
中国大陆地区分渠道来看，截至12月31日止6个月，名创优品线下门店销售额同比下滑19.3%，线上销售额同比下滑14.1%；TOPTOY销售额同比下滑6.4%。海外地区，名创优品线下门店销售额同比大幅增长40.5%。门店网络的扩张来看，截止2023财年第二季度，公司名创优品门店共计5440家，其中中国净增56家达3325家，海外净增88家达2115家；TOPTOY门店数量为117家，同比增长28家，环比增长8家。
Granular view of sales channels
•China: Miniso stores offline sales fell 19.3% yoy in the six months ended 31 Dec 2022, while online sales fell 14.1% yoy; TOP TOY sales fell 6.4% yoy.
•Foreign markets: Miniso stores offline sales lifted substantially by 40.5% yoy.
•Store network: the company has 5,440 Miniso stores globally as of FY23Q2, with a net increase of 56 stores to a total of 3,325 in China and 88 net additions to 2,115 stores in foreign markets. Its TOP TOY store count is 117, after it added 28 stores yoy and 8 stores qoq.
点评：
国内业务复苏趋势明显，下沉市场拓店可期。2QFY23国内业务短期承压，疫后门店情况改善明显。该季度名创优品国内线下门店收入同比下滑超过28%，主要系进店客流量同比下降32%。我们认为，目前线下客流呈明显回暖趋势，根据彭博数据，一线城市1、2月地铁客运总量已恢复至2019年的92.9%。随着线下客流的修复，公司单店模型有望持续优化，2023年1月名创优品线下销售额实现同比提升40%，单店同比提升33%，国内门店持续复苏。
China market making a visible recovery as January offline store sales up 40% yoy
Post-pandemic recovery: Miniso’s business in China came under short-term pressure in FY23Q2 but post-pandemic store performance has risen strongly. As the domestic market is on a visibly recovering trend, we expect the company will proceed with store expansion in lower-tier cities. Miniso offline China store revenue fell more than 28% yoy in the quarter, mainly due to a 32% yoy drop in store footfall.
Shoppers return: the current footfall trend is showing a clear recovery, however. Total subway footfall in first-tier cities recovered 92.9% vs 2019 in January and February 2023, based on Bloomberg data. With returning shopper footfall, we believe the company will see better per-store economics. Miniso offline sales rose 40% yoy with per-store sales up 33% yoy in January. We believe China store performance will continue to improve.
同时，公司国内下沉战略稳步推进，门店高速扩张。截止2023财年第二季度，名创优品国内拥有3325家门店，其中一线城市453家、二线城市1395家、三线或低线城市1477家，公司三线或低线城市占比较去年同期同比增加3.2pct。我们认为，2022年开始公司调整降低加盟门槛（一次性缴纳的保证金由75万下调至35万，每年缴纳的品牌使用费由8万/年下调至2.98万/年），推动下沉市场门店扩张。随着消费复苏，单店模型的修复，加盟商开店意愿有望提升，根据业绩会管理层发言，2023年公司计划于国内新增250-350家门店。
Increasing lower-tier city footprint: the company is advancing a strategy to penetrate China’s lower-tier cities by raising store count there. Of Miniso’s total 3,325 store footprint in China, the city-tier market breakdown as of FY23Q2 is as follows: 453 stores in 1st-tier cities; 1,395 in 2nd-tier cities; and 1,477 stores in 3rd-tier cities and below, which marks a 3.2ppt yoy increase in proportion.
Store upgrade plan: we believe the company has been restructuring its franchised business from 2022. To widen its store footprint in lower-tier cities, Miniso reduced the franchise one-time deposit fee from RMB750,000 to RMB350,000 and the brand-use fee from RMB80,000pa to RMB29,800pa. As the consumer market recovers and the company’s store upgrade plan gets underway, we believe franchisee willingness to open stores will increase. According to management at the results conference, Miniso plans to add 250-350 stores across China in 2023E.
海外增长潜力显现，发力全渠道建设。截止2023财年第二季度，名创优品海外共计2115家线下门店，包括直营店153家，名创合伙人门店246家，以及1716家代理门店。根据名创优品披露的2QFY23运营数据，海外门店贡献营收9.9亿元，海外增长潜力显现。公司将继续积极拓展全球的门店网络，进一步深入渗透亚洲、北美和欧洲等战略市场，2023年公司计划于海外新增350-450家门店。同时计划开发自有电商渠道以及与更多的当地第三方电商及O2O平台合作，拓宽海外线上销售渠道，全渠道触达消费者。
Omnichannel buildout to maximize emerging growth potential in foreign markets
Developing Miniso ecommerce: Miniso has 2,115 physical stores in foreign shores as of FY23Q2, 153 of which are directly operated, 246 are Miniso partner stores and 1,716 are agency stores. Store growth in foreign markets signals growth potential, contributing RMB990m to revenue, according to operating data in Miniso’s FY23Q2 report. The company plans to expand its global store network, aiming to add 350-450 stores in foreign markets in 2023E. It will deepen penetration in strategic markets such as Asia, North America and Europe. Its omnichannel plans include the development of its own ecommerce channel and further collaborations with local third-party ecommerce and O2O platforms to expand its foreign online sales channel.
海外布局全面提速，增长亮眼，2023年预计进入快速成长期。从门店布局来看，2022年H2，中国港澳台及海外新增16家零售店，预计在年底达到40家。从数据来看，根据公司披露的Q3运营数据，中国港澳台及海外收益同比增长115%-120%，处于高速增长阶段。我们认为公司全球化战略的布局不仅拓宽了销售渠道，还平衡了整体梯队的IP经营风险。我们预计23年海外开店数量将相对更积极。
Ex-mainland and foreign buildout: as Miniso expedites multi-spectrum expansion to drive a fast-growth strategy, we expect it will enter a rapid growth cycle in 2023E. In terms of store footprint, it added 16 retail stores in Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan and foreign markets in 2022H2 and plans to reach 40 by the end of the year. Based on 2022Q3 operating data disclosed by the company, China’s Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan and foreign revenue increased 115-120% yoy, marking a high-speed growth cycle. We believe the buildout of the company’s globalization strategy will not only widen its sales channels, but also balance its overall IP management risks. We expect to see a greater ramp-up in the number of foreign store openings in 2023E.
海外业务收入贡献占比提升+产品品牌战略升级提振公司毛利率。名创优品集团2QFY23毛利率高达40.0%，较去年同期上升8.9pct，调整后净利润达3.7亿元，同比大幅增长82%。主要系公司国际业务收入贡献增加，以及品牌升级战略初见成效。本季度国际业务对公司总收入贡献占比同比大幅提升11.5pct至36.2%，由于国际业务毛利率较国内业务高，对公司整体毛利率起到拉动作用。2023年2月24日，公司于召开的品牌升级发布会上多次强调，名创优品将通过1）从渠道品牌升级为产品品牌、2）由零售公司升级为内容公司、3）将顾客升级为用户三个增长路径进行品牌的转型升级。我们认为，随着品牌战略升级策略持续，公司毛利率仍有提升空间。
Gross margin boost: larger share of foreign income; product brand upgrades
Margin restructure: Miniso’s FY23Q2 gross margin reached 40.0%, up 8.9ppt yoy, with adjusted net profit at RMB370m, spiking 82% yoy. The key factor was an increase in foreign income contribution, as its brand upgrade strategy yielded initial results. Foreign market contribution to revenue rose strongly by 11.5ppt yoy to 36.2% in the quarter. The higher foreign gross margin vs the domestic business drove up total gross margin.
3-pronged brand upgrade strategy: Miniso had reiterated at its brand upgrade conference on 24 Feb 2023 that it will effect this via three growth routes: 1) upgrade its brand profile from being channel driven to product driven; 2) upgrade its business profile from being a retail company to one driven by content; and 3) upgrade customers to users. We believe that as it continues to roll out the brand upgrade strategy, this will expand the company’s gross margin growth headroom.
投资建议/Investment Ideas
我们认为，随着国内线下复苏+海外积极拓展，以及品牌升级拓宽盈利空间，叠加进入港股通预期流动性改善，公司有望迎来业绩+估值的双重提升，建议重点关注。
盈利预测与投资建议：基于宏观整体消费潜力逐步释放，以及公司海外布局全面提速和品牌战略升级，有望实现营收利润双增长，我们预计FY2023-2025年公司整体营收124/152/179亿元，同比增长15%/19%/18%。预计名创优品FY2023-2025年净利润分别为14/18/26亿元，同比增长22%/67%/40%。我们给予名创优品FY2023年40x PE，目标价为50 HKD，首次覆盖，给予“买入”评级。
Valuation and risks
We believe that with the offline recovery of the Chinese market, foreign business expansion, as well as brand upgrades to expand profit margins, combined with potential liquidity improvements on entry to Hong Kong Stock Connect, Miniso would enter twin growth trajectories in profitability and valuation. We recommend focusing on the stock.
In light of a macro business recovery potentially lifting incremental consumption, as well as the company’s foreign business footprint expansion and brand strategy upgrades, we expect Miniso will achieve twin growth in revenue and profit. Hence, our revenue projections are RMB12.4bn/15.2bn/17.9bn in FY23/24/25E, implying increases of 15/19/18% yoy. We forecast net profit of RMB1.4bn/1.8bn/2.6bn in FY23/24/25E, up 22/67/40% yoy. We assign a 40x PE in FY23E to Miniso. Hence, we initiate coverage with a BUY rating and our target price at HKD50.
风险提示：1. 疫情影响消费下行；2. 扩店不及预期；3. 海外经营风险
Risks include: pandemic factors dragging consumption; worse-than-expected store expansion; and foreign business risks.
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