Zbom Home Collection
(603801 CH)
全年业绩超预期，经营稳健典范
2022E preliminary results exceed expectations: robust operational performance augurs well for future growth
BUY (maintain) |
投资要点/Investment Thesis
投资要点/Investment Thesis
公司发布22年业绩快报，全年营收53.9亿元（yoy+4.6%），归母净利5.4亿元（yoy+6.1%），前三季度公司毛利率略有提升，22年归母净利率10.0%（同比+0.1pct）。22Q4营收18.7亿元（yoy+2.3%），归母净利2.2亿元（yoy+7.7%），归母净利率11.8%（同比+0.6pct），Q4疫情及高基数影响下，公司收入利润实现正增长，全年盈利能力稳中略升，公司数字化转型以流程变革为牵引，成本管控能力及经营效率提升显著。
2022E drivers: digitized process restructure, cost control, operating efficiency
Zbom published 2022E preliminary results: the flash report had revenue at RMB5.39bn (yoy+4.6%) and net profit at RMB540m (yoy+6.1%). Q1-3 gross margin rose slightly and led to 2022E net margin of 10.0% (yoy+0.1ppt). Q4E revenue was RMB1.87bn (yoy+2.3%), while net profit was RMB221m (yoy+7.7%) and net margin was 11.8% (yoy+0.6ppt). Despite the Q4 pandemic and high base, revenue and profit achieved growth, leading steadily to a slight lift in 2022E profitability. Zbom’s digital restructure led process changes amid better cost control, which greatly increased operating efficiency.
衣柜营收稳中向好，地产宽松政策推动各品类营收增长。22年前三季定制衣柜营收14.4亿，同比增长21.5%，毛利率为37.0%，业务实现高增长，我们预计Q4趋势延续；橱柜业务前三季度收入增速为-6.4%，伴随22年地产宽松政策落地及保交楼政策刺激，公司生产端配合全国各地保交付项目积极推进，Q4大宗业务有望进一步改善，我们预计各品类发展势头均向好。
Revenue took a stable uptrend while policy easing boosted revenue growth across various categories. Customized wardrobes drew revenue of RMB1.44bn in 22Q1-3, yoy+21.5%, with gross margin at 37.0%; we expect the high growth to have continued in Q4E. Cabinets revenue declined 6.4% in 22Q1-3. Amid an easing stance and the rollout of a policy to expedite presold housing completions in 2022, Zbom pushed production to deliver projects across the country on time. We expect greater growth in the bulk business in Q4E, with a good growth momentum across all categories.
深耕经销渠道，整装业务加速布局。公司有成熟的经销代理模式，立足华东区域、布局全国市场，拥有完整的零售营销网络。截止2022年9月30日，公司拥有整体厨柜经销门店1713个，定制衣柜经销门店1708个，木门墙板经销门店713个。公司通过不断招募优质加盟商，完善从招商、建店到运营的加盟商全生命周期管理平台等方式，有计划有步骤的逐步优化加盟商结构，通过建改店、拓渠道、强落地提升终端店面形象，结合产品规划针对性提升终端店面服务水平和专业知识，帮助加盟商提升管理水平和盈利能力。公司通过提前布局，快速完善整装渠道品线，持续拓展全国核心区域整装合作机会，22年下半年拟通过设立“超级邦”区域服务中心，建立超级棒星级服务团队和评价体系，为下一轮整家模式竞争做好必要准备。大宗业务方面，22年公司巩固拓展与优质战略地产客户的合作，全面开发国央企客户，培育与激活工程业务新增长点，积极探索适老公寓、企事业公寓、人才公寓、工程高定等工程产品研发和市场拓展。
Distribution channel expansion: packaged business; new and premium markets
Closely managed franchisee model: Zbom has a mature distribution agency model centered on eastern China and the entire Chinese market, with an expansive retail marketing network. It has 1,713 integrated kitchen cabinet distribution stores, 1,708 customized wardrobe distribution stores, and 713 wooden door and wall panel distribution stores as of 30 Sep 2022. It takes on quality franchisees and drives their management platform life-cycle from investment to building the store as well as operations, implementing the franchisee structure in a step-by-step process. To guard its brand image at end-stores, it covers store building and redecoration, and expanding channels to ensure good outcomes. This combines with product planning targeted at raising service levels while instilling professional store knowledge. In this way, franchisees are empowered to improve store management and profitability.
Leveling up into new markets: because of its early buildout, Zbom has been able to quickly improve its packaged remodeling business. It is seeking more collaboration opportunities across key areas of the country. It planned to set up a Super State regional service center in 22H2, establishing a superstar service team and an evaluation system in preparation for the next round of competition in the packaged business model. In the bulk business, the company consolidated cooperation with strategic real estate customers in 2022, while it also added SOE customers. It set off new growth directions in the engineering business by exploring R&D and the market expansion of segments like elderly-friendly apartments, corporate apartments, talent apartments and premium engineering.
合理规划产线布局，发挥供应链优势。公司生产基地随着业务发展，有效进行产线布局及产能规划，合肥生产基地建有厨柜、衣柜、木门等多品类产线，并包含贴面、膜压、成品等家具配套；清远基地总规划产能可达25亿，将建成智能工厂，打造厨、衣柜智能生产线，提供高效的生产保障，面向南方零售市场、工程战略客户以及海外批量业务。公司重视各生产基地之间的协同效率，融合厨衣资源，积极探索干仓配一体化模式，有效提升支付率，降低综合成本。
Production planning provides full play of supply chain advantages
To ensure business growth, Zbom’s production bases carry out production line and capacity planning. The Hefei production base, for instance, has multi-category production lines such as kitchen cabinets, wardrobes and wooden doors, covering veneers, film pressure and finished products. The Qingyuan base has total planned production capacity of RMB2.5bn and will build a smart factory with smart production lines for kitchens and wardrobes to ensure production efficiency. It targets the southern China retail market, strategic engineering customers and batch exports. The company prioritizes synergistic efficiency across its production bases and integrates kitchen and wardrobe resources, while exploring the integration model of dry storage and distribution, which effectively improves payment rates and reduces total cost.
投资建议/Investment Ideas
维持盈利预测，维持“买入”评级：公司深耕经销渠道，创新管理激发团队并赋能经销商，同时全面布局整装、拎包业务；产品端，持续打造设计领先优势，加强套系化研发，品类间协同效应逐步显现。我们预计23-24年归母净利润分别为6.4/7.6亿元，同比+18%/+19%，对应PE 16x/13x。
Valuation and risks
Zbom Home Collection is consolidating its distribution channels: using innovative management to motivate the team and empower dealers, while overseeing the comprehensive development of the packaged remodeling and turnkey businesses. In its products, the company is honing a competitive edge in design while strengthening product sets via R&D. We believe the inter-segmental synergy that it looks for will emerge in time. We maintain our net profit forecast of RMB640m/761m in 2023/24E, yoy+18%/+19%, corresponding to PE of 16x/13x. We maintain our BUY rating.
风险提示：业绩快报仅为初步核算结果，具体数据以公司正式发布的年报为准；市场竞争加剧；项目建设产能不及预期等风险。
Risks include: the company’s earnings report is only preliminary and subject to the release of its final annual report; intensifying competition; and project construction capacities fall short of expectations.
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