仙鹤股份发布热转印纸提价函，拟3月5日起提价1000元/吨；此前公司已于23年2月15日将热转印原纸每吨提价1000元，我们认为本轮再次提价体现下游需求环比改善，热转印原纸下游主要为纺织服装行业，伴随工厂端进入夏季服装备货期，热转印原纸需求旺盛，我们对本轮提价落地情况继续保持乐观；同时产品售价提升有望改善纸企盈利能力，或将加速2023业绩释放。

When product prices go up, so does paper producers’ profitability

Xianhe announced plans to raise the price of its thermal transfer paper by RMB1,000/t from 5 March 2023; this follows a RMB1,000/t price rise in its thermal transfer base paper on 15 Feb. We think that rising downstream demand is driving this round of price increases. The downstream market for thermal transfer base paper mainly comprises the textile and garment industries. As factories enter the summer apparel stock-up cycle, demand would rise for thermal transfer base paper. We like the implementation prospects of this round of price increases. Product price increases improve the profitability of paper producers, which could accelerate growth in 2023E.

热转印用纸主要用于纺织品转移印花、建材领域热转移以及数码喷绘类转印等。得益于日益严苛的环保政策和消费者个性化、高端化的需求，近年来数码喷绘类转印材料产品需求增长十分迅速。目前数码转印在国际市场已经占据十分重要的份额，也成为中国转印市场未来发展的主要方向，因此，数码喷绘类转印材料市场空间非常可观。2021年，我国热转移纸行业产量达23万吨，其中转印印花纸占比较高，占据热转印纸总产量的60%，数码喷绘纸约为30%。未来随着下游服装和陶瓷等需求带动，我国热转移纸产量存在较大扩张空间。

Regulatory standards and premiumization heat up demand for thermal printing

Thermal transfer paper is mainly used to transfer designs in textile printing, as well as applications such as building materials and inkjet digital printing. Along with more stringent environmental protection policies and rising consumer demand for personalization and upgrades, demand for inkjet digital transfer materials has shot up in recent years. Digital print transfers play a major role in the international market and are a main driver of future Chinese market growth. We believe the printing materials have considerable growth potential. China’s thermal transfer paper output was 230kt in 2021, with print transfer paper accounting for a large proportion at 60% and inkjet digital printing paper at about 30%. We believe downstream apparel and ceramics demand will expand China’s potential in thermal transfer paper production.

伴随下游产业向东南亚转移，中国纸企竞争力有望凸显。全球供给格局来看，我们认为，随着纺织服装业产能逐步向东南亚地区转移，地缘上中国距东南亚更近，中国纸企较欧洲纸企在供应链方面或更占优势。由于热转印纸整体技术和环保要求较高，我们认为龙头企业更加具备优势，其中21年仙鹤国内热转印市场占有率超30%，22H1公司转印系列材料实现销售收入同增26.88%。

Global supply shift to Southeast Asia gives the advantage to Chinese leaders

The downstream sector shift to Southeast Asia has placed the competitiveness of Chinese paper companies in the spotlight. As for the textile and garment industries, we observe a shift of production capacities to Southeast Asia, changing the global supply structure. Chinese paper companies would have supply chain advantages over their European counterparts due to their geographical proximity to Southeast Asia. We believe that the high technological and environmental protection requirements of thermal transfer paper production would give leading companies the advantage. Among them, Xianhe had a market share of over 30% in 2021 and its sales revenue from transfer print materials increased 26.88% in 22H1.

降低热转印纸克重为行业趋势，低定量产品或将成为未来重要增长点。对客户而言，在同样重量的情况下，克重低的转印纸单吨可覆盖面积增加，生产成本有望得优化，从而实现降本增效。公司下属子公司哲丰新材料研发的低定量喷绘热转印原纸成功通过省级新产品鉴定，有望引领市场发展方向，我们认为公司凭借前瞻技术储备，产品力有望持续领先。

Competitive advantage: lower product weight equates to better cost and efficiency 

With the current trend focusing on weight reduction in thermal transfer paper, we believe lightweight will become a key growth factor in the future. For customers, lightweight packs in more products and transfer paper with low grammage covers more area per ton, thereby optimizing production cost and reducing cost while raising efficiency. The low-quantity inkjet thermal transfer base paper developed by Xianhe’s subsidiary Zhefeng New Materials has been cleared for approval after a provincial review. We expect it will lead in driving the direction of market development. We believe the company will retain its product leadership based on its forward-looking technological resources. 

浆价预期进一步下行，23Q2业绩弹性可期，23Q1估值有望先行修复。①发货量：我们预计今年1月受春节影响拖累发货节奏，2、3月起伴随复工复产，发货逐步恢复正常；②成本：2月20日，阔叶木浆参考价为6030元/吨，与2月1日的6290元/吨相比，下降4.1%，我们预期伴随浆价稳步下行，盈利有望环比改善；③价格：我们认为，特纸需求偏刚性且供给格局清晰，龙头一定程度上具备定价能力，需求改善有望提供向上空间。

23Q2E profit elasticity likely with falling pulp prices; valuation recovery in 23Q1E

•Shipping trends: after the slowing momentum in shipping during the Chinese New Year in January, we expect the pace of shipments to pick up from February and March. As work and production resumes, shipments would likely normalize.

•Cost: the reference price of hardwood pulp was RMB6,030/t on 20 Feb, a 4.1% drop from RMB6,290/t on 1 Feb. With pulp prices dropping steadily, we expect mom profits will improve. 

•Price: special paper has relatively rigid demand and a clear supply structure, giving the market leader pricing power to an extent. We expect a demand rise will bring a profit uptrend. 

23年产能逐步释放，迎接扩产大年。公司30万吨食品卡纸项目预计将于23年3月实现投产；广西来宾、湖北石首高性能纸基新材料项目，利用当地资源优势，抢占资源高地，实现“林浆纸用一体化”的全产业链布局，以弥补上游制浆的短板，预计在2023年底投产部分浆线和原纸产能。

2023E incremental production capacity rollouts in Xianhe’s year of expansion 

We expect the company’s 300kt food packaging cardboard project will commence operation in March 2023E. The Guangxi Laibin and Hubei Shishou projects for high-performance paper-based new materials utilize local resources for maximum advantage. This drives the company’s full value chain where it integrates the forestry, pulp and paper businesses to make up for upstream pulp shortfalls. It expects some pulp lines and base paper production capacities to commence operation by the end of 2023E.