传奇投资者Stan Drukenmiller昨天在某主权基金投资年会上发言，以下是其目前市场观点和持仓部分。

Q: Stan, we have been discussing inflation, energy, AI chips, geopolitics and so on so when you put your investing hat on what's at the top of your mind

Stan,我们一直在讨论通货膨胀、能源、人工智能芯片、地缘政治等等，那么当你戴上投资者的帽子时，你目前最关注的是什么？

A: The top of my mind, first of all it's good to see you Nikolai. I would guess the top of my mind is just how uncertain for me trying to analyze the environment is going forward. I've been doing this for 45 years I've studied a lot of economic history but I've never had a situation where you had free money for 11 years, a very broad asset bubble followed by jacking up rates 500 basis points in 12 months.  So for someone like me who likes to look at history and come up with potential scenarios this is a particularly difficult period

首先是很高兴能见到你，尼古拉。我猜我最关注的是，在试图分析未来环境时，我目前感到多么不确定。我已经做这个行业45年了，研究了很多经济历史，但我从来没有遇到过像这样的情况：即我们享受了11年的免费资金，有一个非常广泛的资产泡沫，然后在12个月内将利率提高500个基点。所以对于像我这样喜欢研究历史并据此提出潜在情景的人来说，这是一个特别困难的时期。

Two years ago wasn't so difficult when you had two years yield at 15 basis points and money's probably growing at 30%. it didn't take a genius to figure out that was a good risk reward. These days things are a lot more complicated but you just mentioned about everything on our mind the generative AI, inflation is on our mind, acid bubbles currencies all the stuff we usually think about

两年前并不那么困难。当时美债的两年期收益率为15个基点，而货币供给以30%的速度增长，你毫不费力地就能发现这是一个很好的风险回报。如今，情况变得更加复杂。你刚才提到了我们关注的所有事情：生成式人工智能、通货膨胀、资产泡沫、汇率等等，这些都是我们通常考虑的事情

Q: so how do you navigate it then

那么你打算如何应对这种复杂的情况呢？

A: uh well luckily I don't have any clients so I don't have too much pressure. well you see I have I have one client

好的，那么幸运的是我没有客户，所以我没有太大的压力。我只有我自己一个客户。

Q: and it's pretty big

你自己就是一个非常大的客户..

A: it's really big um I don't have to I don't feel performance pressure. so historically I deal in five or six asset buckets tends to keep me out of trouble in terms of playing in an area where I shouldn't be playing at a particular time and I think it's one of the most important things to do is not to play when you when you don't see a fat pitch.

幸运的是我没有太大的压力。我通常会将资产分成五六个品种(例如债券，汇率，股票等)去投资，这样能够让我避免在某个特定的时期投资某个领域而惹上麻烦。我认为最重要的事情之一是不要在没有看到明显机会的时候轻易进入市场。

I don't see a fat pitch in fixing comes, extremely complicated because I'm I'm in the hard Landing camp, probably sometime later this year. but again this is so complicated I'm not willing to place a big bet and even if I believe in a hard Landing which I do what do you do with two-year treasuries and a sub four percent with funds at five and a quarter I better be right of my hard Landing if I want to own fixed income. and then in the long run um historically this is easy if I believe we're hard Landing I'm supposed to own bonds, but they're not exactly a screaming bargain. 10 years at three and a half in in the U.S particularly with a Fed that has certainly shown some metal in the last year but historically I wouldn't say Jerome Powell is a profiling courage so if we get into hard landing and he moves aggressively, I could see bonds and inflation coming back with a Vigor from what I expect to be a lower level than right now.

在债券市场上我没有看到什么明显的投资机会，这非常复杂，因为我持有“硬着陆”的观点，(硬着陆)可能会在今年晚些时候出现。但是，这个问题非常复杂，我不愿意进行大规模的投注，即使我相信会出现“硬着陆”，我该怎么处理两年期国债收益率低于4%而基金收益率为5.25%的情况呢？

如果我想持有固定收益资产，我的“硬着陆”判断必须得对有才有客观回报。从长端国债来看，历史上这是比较容易的，如果我相信会出现“硬着陆”，那么我应该持有长端债券。但是现在的10年期美国国债收益率在3.5%左右，价格并不便宜。特别是在美联储在过去一年中表现出了一定的决心之后，我不会认为鲍威尔是一个表现出极大勇气的人(指鲍威尔不会像沃克那么有勇气去持续收紧)。如果我们进入“硬着陆”并且他采取积极行动(指鲍威尔重新积极放水)，我预计债券利率和通货膨胀将会从比现在更低的水平上升(即先下跌再回升)。

I will say that the response to Silicon Valley a nerve May a little because in four days they print enough money they basically wiped out the entire reduction of the balance sheet they had done for five or six months so if I'm trying to look ahead and anticipate I don't have a lot of faith in these guys should we get into a hard Landing that they're going to hold the line and not do something maybe worse than Arthur Burns

我会说，联储对硅谷银行事件的反应有点让人不安，因为在四天内，他们印刷了足够的钱，基本上抵消了他们在之前五六个月内所做的整个资产负债表减少。因此，如果我试图展望未来并做出预测，我对这些人的信心并不是很大。如果我们陷入“硬着陆”，他们是否会坚定立场，不会采取可能比亚瑟·伯恩斯(沃克的前任，因为未能采取果断措施导致通胀反复)更糟糕的行动，我并不确定。

Q:where does it leave equities

你怎么看股票？

A: I think within the equity Market, if put a gun in my head, I'd be sure the economy to the extent I should something pure like Russell 2000.  Obviously I don't want to go into individual short names but names um like that old economy economically sensitive stuff but let's just say we're gonna have a hard landing and a bad recession in the U.S what does that mean for NVIDIA I don't know. I mean oils and and chemicals went up in 73 and 74. Staples have gone up in bad recessions in the U.S historically what do I do if with a company if you have a bad recession in the U.S but it's growing wildly throughout that period because we have an arms rates going on in its space it's not clear to me it goes down so I think the equities are complicated.

在股票市场上，如果有人枪指着我的头，我肯定经济衰退会影响那些纯粹(和经济周期相关)的股票，比如罗素2000指数。显然，我不会提到个别值得做空公司的名字，但是像那些老经济、经济敏感的公司会受到很大影响。假设我们会在美国经历一次“硬着陆”和糟糕的衰退，那么这对英伟达公司有什么影响，我不知道。我是说，历史上，石油和化学品在1973年和1974年上涨。在美国的经济衰退中，必需品类股历史上也表现良好。如果在美国经济衰退期间，某家公司(指英伟达)业绩仍然疯狂增长，因为该公司在其所处的行业中发展迅速，这种情况对我来说并不明显，它会下降吗？所以我认为股票市场是很复杂的。

I mean I'd say the one area that whether I feel reasonably comfortable in is I'm sure the United States dollar. Currency Trends tend to run at least two or three years we had a long one here over 10 trillion something like 13 trillion came into the US dollar during the previous decade I will say full disclosure I missed the dollar, probably the biggest Miss in my career and in currency trades. I missed the last nine months run up in the dollar I just couldn't bring myself down Joe Biden and Jerome Powell but um on a relative basis the tightening in the U.S going forward will not be as much as as the foreigners.

我的意思是，我会说唯一让我感到相对舒适的领域就是我对做空美元比较有信心。货币趋势往往持续至少两三年，我们在过去十年中经历了一段漫长的美元趋势，约有13万亿美元流入美国。我必须全盘承认，我错过了美元牛市，这可能是我职业生涯中最大的错失和货币交易中的最大失误。我错过了美元上涨的最后九个月，我只是无法相信乔拜登和鲍威尔。但相对来说，美国的紧缩力度将不会像外国人那样大。

Now that we've weaponized the dollar and you've got people like Lula running around asking why we need to be trading in US Dollars. By the way it's not a bad question historically we could be trusted we had a rule of law a lot of things.  So about the only space I have any risk on right now it's it's in the US dollar.

现在我们已经将美元武器化，你会看到像卢拉这样的人四处奔波，质疑为什么我们需要用美元交易。顺便说一下，从历史上看，这并不是一个坏问题，我们过去可以信任美元，有法治，有很多东西。所以现在我唯一持有的风险头寸就是做空美元。

Don't run out in short dogs I could change my mind in a week but that's where I am right now and I'm also on gold obviously for the same reasons.

不要急着下注，我的看法可能会在一周内发生改变，但就目前而言，我就是做空美元。同时，出于同样的原因，我也对黄金持有看好的态度。

Q: but just uh just to come back to this so you say you haven't seen it as problematic for 45 years and it's really complicated and so on so what do you do then you're sitting cash or um

回到你之前提到的问题，你说这种情况在过去45年中并不常见，现在也变得非常复杂，那么你会采取什么措施呢？你是持有现金，还是其他什么投资？

A: no I'm too I'd like to I'd like to say I had I'm still in cash but I'm too much of a junkie I'm always doing something. I I'd say uh our equities were about three percent net short which is nothing but again I've got there's always equities we like versus other equities. our fixed income position is minimal except in jgbs where I don't know whether I'm getting it paid or not but I think the risk reward is is ridiculous it reminds me a little just a little of the two-year two years ago they have an inflation problem but again I'm dealing on government action so it's not cash we got stuff going on but uh I'd say my P&L doesn't move generally more than 30 or 40 basis points a day that's how button down I have what I'll call our Matrix here our Matrix being the buckets I talked about and the investment within those buckets yeah

我想说，我是”想”持有现金，但我总是无法停止自己寻找投资机会。我们的股票头寸是3%的净空头，这并不算太多，但我们总是有自己喜欢的股票，也有其他不太看好的股票。我们的固定收益头寸很少，持有一些日本国债。我不确定自己在日本国债上是否能够得到回报，但我认为风险回报比是非常优秀的，有点像两年前的2年期美债情况。他们现在面临着通胀问题，但这个品种受到日本政府操控。所以我们并不是完全持有现金，还有其他的投资组合，但我会非常谨慎，我们目前的日常收益波动一般不会超过30或40个基点，因为我们有自己的资产配置矩阵。