GoldenHome Living
(603180 CH)
渠道变革持续推进，利润率稳步回升
Channel optimization progressing well; we expect profit margin to rise gradually
BUY (maintain) |
投资要点/Investment Thesis
投资要点/Investment Thesis
公司发布22年业绩快报，全年营收35.5亿元(yoy+3.0%)，归母净利2.8亿元(yoy-18.5%),，22 年归母净利率7.8%(同比-2.1pct)。22Q4 营收10.6亿元(yoy-13.4%)，归母净利1.1亿元(yoy-38.4%)，归母净利率10.4%(同比-4.2pct)，22年业务开拓费用投入较高，利润增速略有承压。
2022 prelim report: high business development spending pressured profit growth
GoldenHome Living released a preliminary 2022 earnings report with revenue at RMB3.55bn (up 3.0% yoy), net profit at RMB280m (down 18.5% yoy) and net margin at 7.8% (down 2.1ppt yoy). Q4 revenue fell 13.4% yoy to RMB1.06bn, while net profit slipped 38.4% yoy to RMB110m, with net margin at 10.4% (down 4.2ppt yoy).
衣柜、木门业务持续向好。22年，橱柜业务整体稳健，公司持续加大新拓业务的人员和资源投入，海外、木门取得较快的增长。22年前三季度，橱柜/衣柜/木门营收分别为16.6/6.6/1.0亿元，同比分别+1.0%/+37.6/+101.65%，毛利率分别为28.5%/27.2%/5.7%。2022年前三季度，衣柜新建店141家，木门新建店净增加133家，新开店形态以综合店、居家馆为主，加强多品类联单协同，满足客户一站式需求。同时， 公司对所有定制化产品进行数字化、参数化建模，并利用三维在线设计系统，智能、有效地将消费者的定制需求快速呈现成“所想即所见” 的设计方案，设计方案数据驱动整个订单交付的全部过程，提高订单的处理效率。
Cabinets were stable, while wardrobes and wooden doors grew more quickly
Cabinets were stable in 2022 and GoldenHome continued to invest into personnel and resources to drive new business development. Meanwhile, exports and wooden doors grew relatively faster. Revenue generated by cabinets/wardrobe/wooden doors came to RMB1.66bn/660m/100m in 22Q1-3, rising 1.0%/37.6/101.65% yoy, with gross margins at 28.5/27.2/5.7%. The company set up 141 new wardrobe stores and had a net increase of 133 wooden door stores in 22Q1-3. The new stores were mainly multi-category and home living stores, which helped fulfill multi-category orders and met the one-stop needs of customers. GoldenHome applies digital and parametric modeling to all its custom products and uses a 3D online design system, which intuitively and quickly translates customers' personalization ideas into a design plan. The design plan data drives the entire order delivery process and improves order processing efficiency.
全品类、全渠道协同发展，提供一站式全屋及整装家居解决方案。22年公司持续推进零售渠道覆盖，通过设立平台分公司、办事处，加强商圈管理，采取分区招商等渠道创新模式，推动渠道下沉。公司持续推动营销渠道变革，建立国内精细化的营销网络的内外生态循环，利用“渠道线+产品线”双线来加大经营效果，实现公司的商业价值。强化整装业务的拓展，深化品牌协同，以厨衣木产品为核心，致力于提供一站式的全屋和整装的家居解决方案，赋能经销商引流转化。通过招募头部装企为城市运营商，努力做强渠道和销售，截至2022年三季度末，公司已经跟70多家装企建立了整装业务合作关系。大宗业务方面，公司在强化风险管理的基础上，加大优质地产客户资源的获取，推动客户结构优化，强化与央企、地方国企及优质民企等房地产企业的战略合作。
One-stop shop: coordinated categories and channels; whole-house solutions
Channel optimization: GoldenHome continued to increase retail channel coverage and boosted the management of business circles by setting up platform branches and offices. It adopted channel innovation models such as regional investment promotions to expand its business to lower-tier cities. It continued to restructure its marketing channels, and established internal and external ecosystems for a premium domestic marketing network. Incorporating dual channel and product synergy lifted operating results and raised the company’s commercial value.
Whole-house coverage: the company strove to expand whole-house decoration projects and deepen brand synergy, with kitchen, clothing and wood products at the core. This is in line with its one-stop shop for whole-house solutions. It also empowers dealers to increase customer conversion. To take on leading installation companies as its urban operators and to strengthen channels and sales, GoldenHome had established whole-house partnerships with more than 70 installation companies by the end of 22Q3. In the bulk business, it has acquired more quality real estate customer resources to strengthen risk management, optimized its customer structure and firmed strategic ties with real estate players such as central SOEs, local SOEs and elite private companies.
推动海外市场供销一体化，海外市场持续增长。近年来，公司海外业务规模不断提升，实现快速增长，截止22年三季度，公司海外业务营业收入比上年同期增长31.4%。公司针对不同海外市场采取差异化策略，北美市场采用RTA+的业务模式，通过设立服务中心提供产品定制和增补返修，大力推动工程、电商的发展；非北美市场采用可复制的平台公司业务模式，平台公司开拓本土市场，通过设立卫星工厂和仓库，实现本土生产，加快实现供应链本土化，为海外市场持续发展提供保障。
Export business continues to grow through the integration of supply and sales
The export business has expanded and grown fast in recent years, generating revenue growth of 31.4% yoy in 22Q3. The company employs strategic differentiation across different export markets. It applies a RTA+ business model to its North America market. It established service centers to handle product customization and supplementary repairs, while driving the development of engineering and ecommerce. It uses a reproducible platform company business model for its non-North America market. A platform company develops the local market, establishes satellite factories and warehouses to realize local production, accelerates localization in the supply chain and provides guarantees that will sustain the development of its export markets.
投资建议/Investment Ideas
盈利预测与评级：公司是国内高端整体厨柜及定制家居的专业服务商，22年新拓业务发展较快，带动收入增加的同时承担费用压力，预期未来成本阶段性减压，前期投入效果逐渐释放，逐步带动利润增长。考虑到公司渠道加大投入，考虑到公司渠道变革费用率投放，下调盈利预测，我们预计23-24年归母净利分别3.96/4.50亿元（前值分别为4.16/4.84亿元），对应PE 15x/13x，维持“买入”评级。
Valuation and risks
GoldenHome Living is a premium provider of kitchen cabinet sets and custom home furnishings to the Chinese market. Its new businesses developed quickly in 2022, raising revenue while adding expense pressure. We expect the company will reduce cost in phases as initial investments gradually reap benefits to drive profit growth. We lower our forecast to reflect higher channel investment and investment expense ratio on its channel restructure. We now expect net profit will arrive at RMB396m/450m in 2023/24E (previously RMB416m/484m), with PE at 15x/13x. We maintain our BUY rating.
风险提示：业绩快报仅为初步核算结果，具体数据以公司正式发布的年报为准；门店拓展不及预期，房地产市场调控；市场竞争加剧；原材料价格波动风险等。
Risks include: the company's earnings data are only preliminary and subject to the release of its final annual earnings report; less-than-expected store expansion; real estate market regulatory risks; intensifying competition; and raw material price volatility.
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