Yueyang Forest & Paper
(600963 CH)
主业造纸产能提升，林业碳汇未来可期
Core papermaking production capacity expansion lines up with carbon sink forestry potential
BUY (maintain) |
投资要点/Investment Thesis
投资要点/Investment Thesis
公司22年收入97.8亿，同增24.8%，归母净利6.2亿，同增106.5%。分季度，Q1-Q4收入分别为16.7/22/25.6/33.6亿，同比-15.0%/+12.8%/+37.1%+62.8%，归母净利分别为1.2/1.8/1.7/1.4亿，同比-25.6%/+22.5%/+269.9%/+339.0%。22年归母净利率6.3%，同增2.5pct，其中Q1-Q4分别为7.4%/8.0%/6.8%/4.2%，同比-1.1/+0.6/+4.3/+7.1pct。
2022 results: net profit lifted 107% yoy, boosted by strong H2 growth
Yueyang Forest & Paper (YY) posted 2022 revenue at RMB9.78bn, a yoy increase of 24.8%, and net profit at RMB620m, a yoy increase of 106.5%. The Q1/2/3/4 revenue breakdown were RMB1.67bn/2.20bn/2.56bn/3.36bn, changing -15.0%/+12.8%/+37.1%/ +62.8% yoy; with RMB120m/180m/170m/140m net profit, changing -25.6%/+22.5%/ +269.9%/+339.0% yoy. 2022 net margin was 6.3%, up 2.5ppt yoy, breaking down into 7.4%/8.0%/6.8%/4.2% in Q1/2/3/4, changing -1.1ppt/+0.6ppt/+4.3ppt/+7.1ppt yoy.
造纸业产销两旺，新增45wt文化纸产能预计24年投产。分行业，22年造纸收入64.9亿，同增26.6%，毛利率16.8%，同增1.3pct，主要系纸品产销两旺，产量108wt，其中出口收入大幅增加，出口销量8.4wt创历史记录；目前造纸产能100wt/年，同时公司新增投资建设年产45wt文化纸项目有望于24年投产，该项目的实施，有望大幅提升公司浆纸的综合竞争力；林业收入7.7亿，同增140.1%，毛利率2.9%，同减1pct，主要系子公司茂源林业木片销量大幅增加；化工收入2.1亿，同减4.0%，毛利率29.8%，同减1.8pct，伴随子公司双阳高科成功研发G4/G5级电子双氧水，并逐步实现销售，业绩有望稳中有增；市政园林9.8亿，同减39.7%，毛利率14.4%，同增1.7pct。
Up ahead: YY slated to add 45wt graphic paper production capacity by 2024E
Industry expansion: China’s papermaking revenue amounted to RMB6.49bn in 2022, up 26.6% yoy, with gross profit margin at 16.8%, up 1.3ppt yoy. The key reason was a market boom that fueled the production and sales of paper products. Company’s output amounted to 108wt, with a sharp rise in export revenue, driven by 8.4wt export sales, an all-time high. Current paper production capacity is 100wt p.a.
YY set for new graphic paper capacity: YY’s new investment project, a graphic paper production facility with 45wt annual output, is under construction and slated to commence operation in 2024E. Its implementation would greatly boost the company’s comprehensive competitiveness in pulp and paper.
Forestry: YY’s forestry business brought revenue of RMB770m in 2022, a yoy increase of 140.1%, with gross margin at 2.9%, down 1ppt yoy, mainly due to a substantial increase in wood chip sales at subsidiary Maoyuan Forestry.
Chemicals: its chemical business revenue came to RMB210m, down 4.0% yoy, with gross margin at 29.8%, down 1.8ppt yoy. Its subsidiary Shuangyang Hi-Tech Chemical succeeded in developing G4/G5 grades for electronic hydrogen peroxide. When sales kick in, we expect to see steady profit growth.
Municipal gardening: revenue from this segment came to RMB980m in 2022, down 39.7% yoy, with gross margin at 14.4%, up 1.7ppt yoy.
碳排放权交易活跃度有望进一步提升，公司布局碳汇市场力争头部。林业碳汇明确纳入CCER主要类型之一，CCER市场重新开启后为生态资产带来发展机遇。我国统一的碳排放权交易市场是全球覆盖温室气体排放量规模最大的碳市场，随着国内碳市场机制的完善及社会经济发展，未来碳汇需求将稳步提升。根据目前试点地区和已经开市的全国统一市场碳价来看，未来成交量和价格都将处于稳定的上升趋势。公司与北京绿交所达成战略合作，子公司森海碳汇持续深耕市场，积极拓展碳汇业务，参与新的方法学开发，持续提升影响力和竞争力，签订正式开发合同9份，正式开发合同面积达3511万亩，预计在十四五期末，森海碳汇业务将延伸至碳汇开发、碳汇交易、碳汇金融以及碳吸收与碳捕捉技术等领域，打造林业碳汇开发的头部企业，预计25年末将累计签约林业碳汇5000万亩。
Increasing carbon emissions trading; YY aims to lead carbon sink market
Carbon trading catalysts: carbon-sink forestry is clearly labeled as one of the core categories under China’s certified emission reduction scheme (CCER). The restart of CCER would bring growth opportunities for ecological assets. China’s unified carbon emission rights trading market is the largest in the world for greenhouse gas emissions. As the Chinese carbon market mechanism gains traction alongside rising social and economic development, we believe demand for carbon sinks will rise steadily.
Senhai facilitates YY’s goals: based on carbon prices in current regional pilot schemes and the national unified market, future transaction volumes and prices would track a stable uptrend. YY reached a strategic cooperation agreement with Beijing Green Exchange. Its subsidiary Senhai Carbon Sink has been developing in this market, expanding the carbon sink business and participating in the development of new methodologies, while enhancing its influence and competitiveness. It signed 9 formal development contracts, which cover a formal development contract area of 35.11m mu. We estimate that by the end of the 14th Five-Year Plan, Senhai’s carbon sink business will extend to include carbon sink development, carbon sink trading, carbon sink financing, carbon absorption and carbon capture technologies. This would position YY to be a leading player in the carbon sink forestry development market. We expect the company will accumulatively sign up to 50m mu of land for forestry carbon sequestration by the end of 2025E.
23年预期浆板价格下调，稳步缓解成本端压力。22年浆板价格维持高位且呈持续上涨趋势，随着国际供应量增加，预计23年浆板价格会逐渐下调，缓解公司成本压力。同时公司与全球产能最大、性价比最高的浆厂建立了战略合作伙伴关系，浆板供应量稳定、性价比优势突出。公司拥有完善的产、供、销体系，浆板、煤炭等原材料采购与成品纸销售物流信息共享，实现物流价值最大化。
Pulp board prices set to fall in 2023E, which would gradually ease cost pressure
More supply in 2023E: pulp board prices rose persistently in 2022; in 2023E, we expect international supply expansion to lead prices to fall gradually, which would ease cost pressure for YY. The company established a strategic partnership with the world’s largest production capacity and most cost-effective pulp mill. This ensures pulp board supply stability for the company, on top of its strong cost advantage. Operationally, YY has a complete production, supply and marketing system. It shares information on the procurement of raw materials such as pulp board and coal, as well as on sales of finished paper, so as to maximize logistics.
各项费用控制有效。2022年公司销售/管理/研发/财务费用率分别为1.1%/3.0%/3.1%/1.7%，同比-0.4/-0.7/-0.1/-0.6pct，费用控制有效。
Effective cost control: YY’s sales/management/R&D/financial expense ratios were 1.1%/3.0%/3.1%/1.7% in 2022, changing -0.4/-0.7/-0.1/-0.6ppt yoy, indicating the company is effective in managing costs.
投资建议/Investment Ideas
维持盈利预测，维持“买入”评级。岳阳林纸以林浆纸产业为基础，进行产业链延伸，进入生态行业，从事林业勘查设计、森林碳资产管理、景观设计、园林工程施工养护、生态治理，形成了以“浆纸+生态”为主营业务的双核发展产业格局，拥有近200万亩林业基地和岳阳、怀化、宁波三大产业基地。我们看好公司浆纸业务稳健，自产浆供给率超50%，成本端优势突出，长期看林业碳汇前景广阔，预计公司23-25年归母净利分别为7.8、9.1、10.3亿，对应PE为16x、14x、12x。
Valuation and risks
With its firm basis in the forestry and pulp & paper businesses, YY is extending its value chain coverage to include ecological businesses such as forestry surveys and design, forest carbon asset management, landscape design, garden engineering construction and maintenance, and ecological governance. This is the crux of its dual-core business model: pulp and paper, and ecology. The company owns a nearly-2m mu forestry base and three major industrial bases in Yueyang, Huaihua and Ningbo. We are bullish about its stable pulp and paper business. And given its self-sufficiency pulp supply ratio of over 50% and strong cost advantages, we also see healthy prospects for its carbon sink forestry business in the long term. We project YY’s net profit will reach RMB783m/ 906m/1.03bn in 2023/24/25E, corresponding to 16x/14x/12x PE. We maintain our profit forecast and BUY rating for YY.
风险提示：市场竞争加剧；原材料价格波动；项目建设不及预期等风险。
Risks include: intensifying competition; raw material price fluctuations; and project construction progress falls short of expectations.
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