Kuaishou Technology
(1024 HK)
快手2023Q1业绩前瞻：收入端或超预期，关注后续核心业务增长
23Q1E preview: revenue could come in above expectation; up ahead we would focus on core business growth
TP:HKD87.00 BUY (maintain) |
投资要点/Investment Thesis
投资要点/Investment Thesis
整体业绩前瞻：我们预计快手2023Q1收入为250亿元，同比+19%；调整后净利润收窄至-4亿元，同比-89%
我们预计2023Q1快手收入约250亿元（彭博一致预期243亿元），同比+19%。我们预计2023Q1综合毛利率约为46%，环比小幅提升，主要系年度直播盛典后收入分成比例或有所下降；我们预计Non-IFRS经调整净利润约-4亿元（彭博一致预期-5亿元），同比-89%；对于市场比较关注的销售费用，考虑到今年春节时间较早，销售费用或部分前置到Q4，我们预计Q1作为春节后期推广时期，投放费用或有减少，预计销售费用率同比或仍呈下降趋势。
23Q1E: revenue up 19% yoy to RMB25bn; adjusted net loss at RMB400m (-89%)
We estimate Kuaishou’s revenue grew 19% yoy to RMB25bn in 23Q1E (Bloomberg consensus (BBG): RMB24.3bn). We believe total gross margin would have risen slightly qoq to 46% in Q1E, mainly on a dip in revenue sharing ratio after its annual livestream ceremony. We expect an adjusted non-IFRS net loss of RMB400m in the quarter, down 89% yoy (BBG: RMB500m loss). As for the market’s concern about sales expenses, with Chinese New Year (CNY) coming earlier this year, some of the sales expense impact would have been ahead of time in 22Q4. We expect Q1E reflected post-CNY promotions and lower launch expenses. We estimate a yoy sales expense ratio downtrend.
流量情况：预计公司流量稳健增长，用户粘性持续提升
预计公司流量仍将稳健增长，市场份额相对稳定，我们预计2023Q1 快手日均活跃用户数为3.73亿，同比增长8%，环比小幅增长；人均单日使用时长为132分钟，同比增长3%，环比或有所下降，主要系Q1用户线下时长或有提升。我们认为公司依靠丰富的优质内容供给（泛知识、体育、娱乐等垂类内容）在流量端增长稳健，总流量端（DAU*时长）及社交属性或持续提升。
User traffic: we expect steady growth and increasing user stickiness
We expect Kuaishou’s user traffic growth would have tracked steadily in the quarter on a stable market share. We estimate average daily active users generated RMB373m in Q1E, up 8% yoy, a slight increase qoq; with average daily usage time per capita at 132 minutes, up 3% yoy and possibly a qoq decline, mainly due to an increase in offline user time. We reckon the company relies on a pipeline of rich quality content (including general knowledge, sports, entertainment and other verticals) to grow user traffic and total traffic (DAU*duration) and social factors could continue to improve.
线上营销业务：预计广告收入增速有所恢复，持续关注外循环广告恢复情况
我们预计23Q1快手线上营销业务收入132亿元，同比增长16.5%；我们预计随着宏观经济形势稳步恢复，广告主需求或有所恢复，或带动广告收入增速有所恢复；我们预计公司Q1外循环广告同比仍未转正，或有望在Q2看到明显恢复趋势；我们预计公司内循环广告收入或随GMV增速维持高速增长，或为Q1广告收入增长的主要驱动因素。
Online marketing: we see ad revenue growth recovery; watch external ad recovery
We estimate Kuaishou’s online marketing revenue at RMB13.2bn in Q1E, up 16.5% yoy. We expect a steady macroeconomic recovery could have driven a demand recovery among advertisers to drive up ad revenue growth. We expect external ad revenue would not have turned positive yet in Q1E, but rather, we see a clear recovery trend in Q2E. We expect its internal advertising revenue maintained rapid growth on GMV increases, which could have been the main driver of Q1E advertising revenue growth.
其他服务收入（含电商）：达人分销抽佣或带来货币化率提升
我们预计23Q1快手电商GMV同比增长29%至2258亿元，主要系年货节及三八节等大促活动助力。考虑到公司积极推进快分销业务，达人分销抽佣或带来电商货币化率的提升，我们预计其他服务收入同比增长41%至26亿元。随着供给端公司持续吸引商家入驻，品牌化进展加速，建议持续关注公司618期间成交情况。
Other services (and ecommerce): talents’ commissions could lift monetization
We estimate Kuaishou’s ecommerce GMV increased 29% yoy to RMB225.8bn in Q1E, driven by major promotions like New Year’s Day and 8th March Festival. Considering fast distribution promotions and distribution talents’ commissions could increase the ecommerce monetization rate, we estimate other service revenue rose 41% yoy to RMB2.6bn. As Kuaishou keeps attracting supply merchants and its branding optimization accelerates, we suggest investors monitor transactions during the 618 promotion.
直播打赏业务：预计直播付费用户渗透率持续提升
我们预计23Q1公司直播打赏收入同比增长16.6%至91亿元，我们认为收入增长主要系公司积极引入头部公会及主播，持续丰富直播供给，优化直播生态；展望未来，我们认为公司有望通过丰富产品形式（快聘、理想家等），满足不同场景下的用户需求，进一步提升直播月度付费率。
Livestream tipping: increasing penetration of paying livestream users
We estimate livestream tipping revenue increased 16.6% yoy to RMB9.1bn in Q1E. We believe the introduction of top guilds and anchors drove revenue growth, along with a rich livestream supply pipeline and the optimization of its livestream ecosystem. Looking ahead, we believe Kuaishou will be able to fulfill the needs of users across various scenarios by enriching its product formats (Kwai Hire, Ideal Home) to drive up livestreaming monthly payment rates.
投资建议/Investment Ideas
投资建议：考虑到公司核心业务恢复或超预期，我们小幅上调公司2023E-2024E年营业收入由1112/1272亿元至1122/1272亿元，同比增长19%/13%, 上调公司2023E-2024E Non-IFRS净利润由21/111亿元至24/111亿元。基于SOTP估值，给予快手2023年广告、直播、电商业务分别2X P/S、10X P/E、0.15X P/GMV ，对应目标价87港元，维持“买入”评级。
Valuation and risks
To reflect our view of Kuaishou’s core business recovery, which could come in potentially above expectations, we nudge up our revenue forecast to RMB112.2bn/127.2bn in 2023/24E (from RMB111.2bn/127.2bn), up 19/13% yoy; and upgrade our non-IFRS net profit numbers to RMB2.4bn/11.1bn (from RMB2.1bn/11.1bn). Based on our SOTP valuation, we assign 2x PS/10x PE/0.15x P/GMV to Kuaishou’s advertising/ livestream/ ecommerce businesses in 2023E; corresponding to our HKD87 target price. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.
风险提示：组织架构调整效果不及预期；短视频行业竞争激烈，快手用户规模和时长增长不及预期；直播等在线娱乐行业监管收紧，内容审核趋严；广告加载率及eCPM提升不及预期；电商付费用户规模以及复购率提升不及预期；海外业务拓展及商业化变现不及预期；跨市场估值相关风险。
Risks include: worse-than-expected outcomes from organizational restructure; intensifying competition in the short videos segment; lower growth in user scale and use duration than expected; tightening online entertainment regulations such as in livestreams, or more stringent content reviews; rising advertising load rates and lower-than-expected eCPM; slower scaling of paying ecommerce users and repurchase rates than expected; weaker-than-expected implementation of export market expansion and monetization; and cross-market valuation risks.
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