Xilinmen Furniture
(603008 CH)
经销商拟增持股份0.8-1.2亿元，彰显长期发展信心
Distributors’ plan to raise their stakes by RMB80-120m adds ballast to Xilinmen’s long-term growth
BUY (maintain) |
投资要点/Investment Thesis
投资要点/Investment Thesis
公司发布公告，部分经销商基于对公司未来持续稳定发展的信心以及对公司投资价值的认同，拟增持股份0.8-1.2亿元，共享公司经营成果，利于公司与经销商整体利益协同，彰显长期发展信心。本次增持不设价格区间，由增持计划管理人根据对公司股票价值的合理判断，并结合二级市场波动情况独立判断买卖时点和价格，逐步实施增持计划，实施期限为公告日起12个月。
Dealers bind interests with Xilinmen: plan to raise their stakes by RMB80-120m
Xilinmen Furniture announced that some of its dealers plan to increase their stakes in the company by RMB80-120m, a sign of confidence in its stable growth prospects. The company said this recognition of its investment value is a way for the dealers to share in its operating performance growth. It added that the alignment of the interests of both parties is conducive to Xilinmen’s long-term development. The stake increase plan does not specify a price range. Rather, the plan manager has 12 months to implement the plan and will independently determine the timing and price after assessing Xilinmen’s share price amid secondary market volatility.
我们预计伴随家居消费旺季到来，终端订单有望持续向好。渠道方面，门店稳健增长，积极开拓下沉渠道。卖场渠道保持稳健，与多家大型连锁家具卖场确立长期战略合作关系，加强对终端门店的控制力，在门店位置、商场资源、联合营销占据优势，截至22Q3门店数量4575家，MD门店611家，合计较2022年初净增691家，进度基本符合2022年初千家以上的新增开店计划。公司建立分销体系，助力经销商扩大渠道优势，下沉渠道通过主打年轻化和性价比的“喜眠”品牌进行。工程渠道，主要合作单位为高星级酒店管理公司、连锁酒店集团、酒店式公寓等客户，在增加新建酒店床垫市场份额的基础上，赋能现有酒店升级改造，创造新的市场需求，打造更多样的主题房型。
Channel moves: peak season will likely sustain uptrend; new-store plan on track
Stores: with the arrival of peak season for household consumption, we expect orders from end-customers will continue to increase. In channel terms, Xilinmen’s store count is rising steadily while it expedites an expansion into lower-tier markets. The store channel is stable. Its long-established strategic partnerships with several large furniture chains enable better control over the end-market stores, store locations, mall resources and joint marketing initiatives. It has 4,575 Xilinmen stores and 611 Milano & Design stores as of 22Q3, marking a combined net increase of 691 since the start of 2022, keeping pace with its plan for more than 1,000 new stores. The company established a distribution system to help dealers expand their channel advantages and is expanding its lower-tier market under its Ximian brand, which offers youthful, cost-effective products.
Engineering services: the main customers of its engineering service channel are high-star-rated hotel management companies, hotel chains and serviced apartments. To increase its market share in new-built hotel mattresses, Xilinmen helps hotels to upgrade and restructure, create new demand and develop diverse room themes.
产品方面，系列划分清晰，覆盖多层次市场，逐步激发换新需求。净眠保持定位中高端市场；法诗曼更为聚焦年轻消费者，定位中端市场；喜眠倾向性价比，贴合低线城市的市场需求，主攻下沉市场，整体配合“人的一生要用8张床垫”的宣传理念，逐步推进消费者教育、激发换新需求。行业层面，近年来1000 元以下产品销量占比显著下降，1000 元以上产品销量占比超30%，3000元以上产品销量占比不断提升。我们认为，喜临门作为行业头部品牌，伴随其推出更多高附加值产品，产品成交价格段有望拉升。
Differentiated products cater to multiple price bands; slogan woos replacements
Consumer upgrades: the Joanmon brand entrenches its positioning in the higher-end price band, Fancymoon focuses on younger consumers in the mid-range market, while Ximian provides a cost-effective image targeted at low-tier cities. With the marketing slogan, “8 mattresses through life”, Xilinmen raises consumer awareness to stimulate demand for new ones. Industry wise, sales of the below-RMB1,000 product price band have slid in proportion in recent years, while the above-RMB1,000 price band has crossed 30% and the proportion of the above-RMB3,000 price band keeps growing. As brand leader, we expect Xilinmen will raise product prices as it launches higher value-added products.
产能方面，公司河南工厂二期项目将于23年3月下旬开始施工，并于23年11月竣工验收，24年3月投产使用后，公司制造端能力有望进一步加强。
Production capacity: construction of the Henan factory project phase II will start in late March 2023 and slated to be completed in November this year. Its operational rollout in March 2024E would strengthen Xilinmen’s manufacturing capabilities.
线上方面，加深平台合作，推动线上线下一体化打通。公司已与天猫、京东、苏宁易购等核心电商平台形成深度合作，并已在抖音等多个平台开展直播，同时布局商超、家电、家装等新渠道，发掘新增量，逐步构建一个以线下专卖店和线上平台为核心，分销店、商超家电店为补充的“1+N”全渠道销售网络。积极布局线上线下终端活动，实现潜在客群的引流转化，线上为线下引流，线下为线上赋能。公司与天猫达成“家装本地化战略”合作，目前以上海、杭州为试点，积极推进“线上线下相融合”。打造921电商品牌日，活动当日总成交较前一日提升400%+，活动期间店铺新客占比95.4%。双十一全网销售额12.82亿，同比+52.90%，其中高端床垫同比增长112%，直播销售额同比增长12%。
O2O: more platform collaborations; online-to-offline integration expands market
Xilinmen stepped up collabs with key ecommerce platforms like Tmall, JD.com and Suning.com, and launched livestreams on multiple platforms like Douyin (TikTok). To explore new markets, it segued into new channels such as supermarkets, and home appliance and home decoration stores. These efforts paved the way to the establishment of a “1+N” omni-channel sales network: at the center are offline specialty stores and online platforms, supplemented by distribution stores, supermarkets and home appliance stores. O2O marketing initiatives are aimed at converting potentials to expand its customer base. Online platforms draw traffic to offline platforms, while offline sales points augment its online expansion. The company reached a strategic cooperation agreement with Tmall to “localize the home decoration market”. Currently, Shanghai and Hangzhou are pilot sites to drive the online and offline integration. The company’s “921 Ecommerce Day”, which raked in turnover growth of over 400% that day, vs the previous day, and 95.4% of the customers at the event were new ones. For its Double-11 promotions, sales on the entire network amounted to RMB1.28bn, up 52.90% yoy, high-end mattress sales rose 112% yoy, and livestream sales increased 12% yoy.
投资建议/Investment Ideas
盈利预测与估值：我们看好公司作为床垫行业龙头，线上线下渠道持续拓展，自主品牌影响力逐步确立，预计公司22-24年归母净利分别为6.0、7.6、9.7亿，对应PE为22x、17x、14x。
Valuation and risks
We are bullish about mattress leader Xilinmen’s O2O channel expansion, given the rising profile of its own brands. We forecast net profit will arrive at RMB597m/756m/970m in 2022/23/24E, with PE at 22x/17x/14x. We maintain our BUY rating on the stock.
风险提示：本次增持计划相关基金的成立与备案、定向资产管理计划的设立及信托的成立手续尚未办理完毕；公司股价波动可能导致后续增持计划的具体实施时间和价格存在一定不确定性；终端门店不及预期；行业竞争加剧；原材料价格上涨等。
Risks include: the establishment and filing of the fund related to the stake increase plan, and the establishment of the directed asset management plan and of the trust have yet to be completed; fluctuations in the company’s share price could add uncertainty to the implementation timing and price of the share increase plan; end-market stores underperforming expectations; intensifying competition; and raw material price rises.
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