公司2022年收入258.03亿元，同比增长14.3%，主要系22年国内疫情多发散发，消费者即期消费能力有所减弱, 其中 22H1、 22H2 营收及增速分别为124.09亿（同比+21.69%）、133.94 亿（同比+8.23%）。

2022 年归母净利 40.64 亿元，同比增长 1.32%，我们认为或主要系公司收入和毛利率较上年略有增长、费用率略有减少。其中22H1、22H2归母净利及增速分别为21.89亿（同比+11.56%）、18.75 亿（同比-8.49%）。

Flattish net profit growth in 2022; company guides mid-teen growth for 2023E

2022 results: revenue: Li Ning posted 2022 revenue at RMB25.80bn, up 14.3% yoy, mainly due to frequent pandemic resurgences while immediate consumption spending power weakened. The H1/H2 breakdown was RMB12.41bn/13.39bn, up 21.69/8.23% yoy. Net profit: 2022 net profit grew 1.32% yoy to RMB4.06bn, likely due to revenue and gross margin upticks yoy, and a narrower expense ratio. The H1/H2 breakdown was RMB2.19bn/1.88bn, changing +11.56/-8.49% yoy.

公司预计23全年收入增速10%-20%中段，净利率10%-20%中段。我们认为财报后市场调整，系市场对23年生意预期相对较高，考虑疫情影响，品牌23年1-2月动销或为恢复趋势，我们预计Q1整体约为同比个位数增长，全年指引中双较为稳妥；边际看3月有望基于低基数环比改善，估值或有望企稳。

2023E outlook: Li Ning guides both 2023E revenue and net profit growth to track in the middle of the 10-20% range. We believe the market adjustment post-results indicates high expectations for its 2023E performance. With a moderating pandemic impact, the brand’s dynamic sales in Jan-Feb 2023E would have entered a recovery cycle. We expect total business would have grown by a single-digit yoy in Q1E, making more probable the company’s mid- to double-digit guidance for 2023E. In margin terms, March will likely improve mom due to a low base, which would stabilize valuations.

分渠道来看：2022年公司继续优化渠道结构，推进全渠道融合、新零售业务发展，线上渠道营收74.65亿元（占总29.0%）同增16.41%；线下渠道营收178.82亿元（占总69.2%）同增12.73%。

Channel and product strategy: 2022 revamp and expansion with quality image

Channels: the company optimized its channel mix last year, firming omnichannel integration and developing new retail business. These efforts led online revenue to grow 16.41% yoy to RMB7.47bn (29.0% of the total), while offline revenue came to RMB17.88bn (69.2% of the total), up 12.73% yoy.

分产品来看：2022年鞋类收入134.79亿元（占总52.2%）同增41.79%；服装收入107.09亿元（占总41.5%）同减9.43%；器材配件收入16.16亿元（占总6.3%）同增30.07%。

Products: footwear revenue rose 41.79% yoy to RMB13.48bn in 2022 (accounting for 52.2% of the total); apparel garnered RMB10.71bn (accounting for 41.5% of the total), falling 9.43% yoy; while equipment and accessories revenue was at RMB1.62bn (6.3% of the total), rising 30.07% yoy.

聚焦渠道拓展与优化，落地全新渠道形象。截至2022年12月31日，李宁牌（包含李宁核心品牌及李宁YOUNG）常规店、旗舰店、中国李宁时尚店、工厂店、多品牌集合店的销售点数量为7603家，较2021年12月31日净增466个；经销商52家（包括中国李宁时尚店渠道），较2021年12月31日净减13家。

Store network: Li Ning had 7,603 points of sale for its brands as of 31 Dec 2022, a net increase of 466 from 31 Dec 2021 (including main brands “Li-Ning” and “Li-Ning Young”), such as regular stores, flagship stores, “China Lining” boutiques, factory outlets and multi-brand collection stores. It has 52 distributors (including China Li-Ning boutiques), a net decrease of 13 from 31 Dec 2021. 

22年公司店铺面积同增10%-20%高段，平均单店超200平，400平以上超1600家，大店流水占比提升高单。优质大店可充分提升品牌形象，优化购物体验展现商品思路，实现店铺质量与商圈认可共振；公司拓展高质量可盈利优质店铺，加速优质店铺开设。

Store metrics: total store area increased 10-20% yoy in 2022; the average store size is more than 200sqm and it has more than 1,600 stores that are bigger than 400sqm. The turnover proportion of large stores has increased as high-quality large stores optimized the brand image and shopping experience with themed product displays. Li Ning also raised its brand profile in business districts with quality stores. Under its quality ramp-up, it sped up the opening of profitable and premium stores.

营运能力保持稳健，持续强化商品管理机制。截至22年12月31日公司存货规模为25.49亿元，存货周转周期为58天，同比增长4天。满足多样化需求，使商品宽度和深度保持在合理水平：1）商品结构，商品宽度增加高单位数，商品深度增加低单位数；2）商品销售，新品 3 个月折扣率 70%-80%高段，新品 3 个月售罄率 50%-60%低段。

Stable operational capacities and a sound inventory management system 

Inventory amounted to RMB2.55bn as of 31 Dec 2022, with an inventory turnover cycle of 58 days, 4 more days vs the previous year. Li Ning sought to fulfill diverse customer needs within reasonable product ranges: 

•Product mix: it increased the breadth of its product mix by a high single-digit and the depth by a low single-digit.

•Product sales: new products have discount rates within 3 months at the higher end of the 70-80% range, while their sell-out rates within 3 months are at the lower end of the 50-60% range.

我们认为库存方面无需过度担心，公司重视库存效率，目前终端售罄率良好，合理库存结构有利于生意达成，多维管理有利于平衡规模与效率。

Efficient inventory: we would not worry too much about inventory as Li Ning prioritizes inventory efficiency. It currently has good end-market sell-out rates. Its sound inventory structure helps ensure business success, while multi-spectrum management enables a balance of scale and efficiency.

核心产品拉动效果显现。公司超轻19跑鞋年销售超300万双，创造李宁单款鞋商品的历史销售新纪录，聚焦核心大单品，一方面能更好减轻供应链压力、优化终端模型，充分提升经营效率；另一方面强化市场对于核心功能产品消费记忆，用正确途径与消费者展开更为合适沟通。

Carrying the bestsellers strategy through to 2023E on their strong pull effect 

Super Light 19: this running shoes collection has sold more than 3m pairs annually, an all-time record for a single shoe product. Focusing on bestsellers is a strategy that reduces pressure on the supply chain, optimizes the end-market model, and raises operating efficiency. It also enhances market memory of core functional products, while boosting communication with consumers.

专业产品线韧性赛道优势凸显。22年零售同增4%，其中篮球25%、跑步13%、生活-6%，篮跑零售占比近50%；专业线仍旧保持极强赛道韧性，李宁䨻平台、弜科技、全碳板、异构碳板等有效赋能产品系列，强化科技引领与消费心智。

Professional sports: the key advantage of its professional footwear is track toughness. Retail sales increased 4% yoy in 2022: with the basketball segment up 25%, running up 13%, lifestyle down 6%; basketball and running retail accounted for nearly 50% of the total. Its professional sports collection maintains a strong track resilience. Li-Ning’s Beng platform, Jiang technology, full carbon, heterogeneous carbon and other performance empowering product initiatives have strengthened its technology leadership and consumer mindshare. 

2023年，公司将继续秉持“单品牌、多品类、多渠道”的策略，推进业务发展，不断增强零售运营能力，深化李宁式体验价值，推动公司业绩保持可持续增长：1）产品方面；2）渠道发展方面；3）零售运营和供应链方面；4）营销方面；5）新业务方面。

In 2023E, Li Ning is likely to retain its strategic focus on bestsellers, product diversity and omnichannels. This would help drive business development, retail operational capabilities and raise the value of the Li-Ning experience. The five key drivers to its sustainable profit growth are: products; channel development; retail operations and the supply chain; marketing; and new businesses.