美国将华为列入黑名单，这显然是中兴式的外科手术式罢工。华为似乎已经死了。华为或中国能做些什么来克服这一点或进行报复?中国会怎么做?
Janus Dongye Qimeng, an AI researcher in Cambridge
剑桥大学人工智能研究员Janus Dongye Qimen
Let's look at facts, not opinions.
Let me introduce the whole supply chain of Huawei's most popular phone in 2019: P30.
让我们看事实，而不是观点。
让我来介绍一下2019年华为最受欢迎的手机的P30的整个供应链。
The "brain" of the Huawei P30 mobile phone is called Kirin 980 System-on-Chip designed by HiSilicon. And HiSilicon is the sub-company under Huawei. Why is it called System-on-Chip? Because it is a chip that contains many components designed by the rest of the world and put together in a single chip.
华为P30手机的"大脑"被称为麒麟980系统芯片，由海思设计。海思是华为旗下的子公司。为什么称之为片上系统?因为它是一个芯片，包含了许多由世界其他地方设计的组件，并把它们放在一个芯片上。
So what is inside the System-on-Chip?
Instruction set architecture: HiSilicon purchased the CPU and GPU architectural license from ARM in Cambridge, UK. With the license, HiSilicon can use the ARM instruction set (armv8) and develop their own 64-bit CPU architecture. And the bus standard such as AMBA is also licensed from ARM.
那么片上系统内部是什么呢?
指令集架构:海思从英国剑桥的ARM购买了CPU和GPU架构许可。有了许可证，海思可以使用ARM指令集(armv8)并开发自己的64位CPU架构。像AMBA这样的总线标准也是由ARM授权的。
CPU, GPU: HiSilicon employs several hundred people in Shenzhen, China to design their custom CPU cores, accelerators, and IP components. In order to design their own CPU, they need to use Electronic design automation (EDA) tools from Synopsis, Cadence, and Xilinx. These EDA companies are all American companies in California, USA. HiSilicon needs to pay them license fees to use their tools to design and simulate their own CPUs.
CPU, GPU:在中国深圳，海斯雇佣了数百名员工来设计他们定制的CPU核心，加速器和IP组件。为了设计自己的CPU，他们需要使用来自Synopsis、Cadence和Xilinx的电子设计自动化(EDA)工具。这些工具的公司都是美国加州的美国公司。海思需要向他们支付许可费，让他们使用自己的工具来设计和模拟自己的cpu。
Meanwhile, HiSilicon can also integrate existing softcore designed by ARM, such as powerful core Cortex A76 and power efficient core Cortex A55. Both are in the same chip. The big core is designed in Austin, Texas, USA and the small core is designed in Cambridge, UK. Some of the low-end CPU cores are also purchased from MediaTek in Taiwan. Meanwhile, HiSilicon can also purchase other intellectual properties from ARM including the Mali T830 GPU and the interconnect subsystems. Mali GPU is designed in the ARM headquarters in Cambridge, UK.
同时，海思还可以集成ARM设计的现有软核，如功能强大的core Cortex A76和功能强大的core Cortex A55。两者都在同一个芯片上。大核在美国德克萨斯州奥斯汀市设计，小核在英国剑桥市设计。一些低端CPU核心也购自台湾联发科。同时，海思还可以从ARM购买其他知识产权，包括Mali T830 GPU和interconnect子系统。Mali GPU是在英国剑桥ARM总部设计的。
Memory: HiSilicon designed their own logic in the memory controller and SRAM systems. SRAM and DRAM cells are licensed from Samsung, Korea. The future 7nm 3D stacked RAM would also be designed from Samsung but manufactured in Dalian, China.
内存:海思在内存控制器和SRAM系统中设计了自己的逻辑。SRAM和DRAM电池均由韩国三星授权。未来的7nm 3D堆叠RAM也将由三星设计，但在中国大连生产。
DSP & Camera: HiSilicon purchased the Camera lens design IP and control system from Leica Camera from Germany, where most of the system was designed in Wetzlar, Germany. And the actual lens is manufactured by Largan Precision in Taiwan and Sunny Optical Technology in mainland China. The electrical motors for driving camera to change focus is manufactured by Mitsumi in Tsurumaki, Japan.
DSP与摄像头:HiSilicon从德国徕卡相机购买相机镜头设计IP与控制系统，该系统大部分设计在德国韦茨拉尔。实际镜头由台湾拉根精密制造，中国大陆阳光光学科技制造。驱动相机对焦的电机由日本鹤崎三美制造。
To translate light into signals, the photosensitive film is designed by O-film in Shenzhen, China (also supplier for iPhone X). HiSilicon purchased the hardware solutions for auto-focus and image stabilization from ON Semiconductors in Phoenix, Arizona, USA. The HD video processing chip is licensed from Sony, Japan. And HiSilicon designed their own image processing hardware accelerators (ISP), purchased many DSP IP patents from CEVA in California, USA and AI chips from Cambricon Technologies from Beijing, China.
为了将光转换成信号，这种光敏薄膜由中国深圳的O-film公司(也是iPhone X的供应商)设计。HD视频处理芯片是日本索尼公司授权生产的。海斯设计了自己的图像处理硬件加速器(ISP)，从美国加州CEVA公司购买了许多DSP IP专利，从中国北京Cambricon Technologies公司购买了AI芯片。
Baseband: HiSilicon purchased IP license to use WIFI, GPS and Bluetooth IP from Broadcom from San Jose, California. For the 3G support, HiSilicon has to pay a royalty fee to patents held by Qualcomm from San Diego, California. For later 4G LTE and 5G, HiSilicon has its own patents and baseband processor called Balong, which was designed by several hundred people across China. HiSilicon has also purchased the Beidou Navigation system from Chinese Academy of Sciences. Note that some of the chip verification tasks are performed by Indian Engineers in Hyderabad, India.
基带:海思从加利福尼亚州圣何塞的Broadcom购买了使用WIFI、GPS和蓝牙IP的IP许可证。为了获得3G支持，海思必须向高通在加州圣地亚哥持有的专利支付专利费。对于后来的4G LTE和5G，海斯力有自己的专利和基带处理器，名为巴隆(Balong)，由中国各地数百人设计。海斯还从中国科学院购买了北斗导航系统。注意，一些芯片验证任务是由印度海得拉巴的工程师完成的。
Radio Frequency: To multiplex between various communication signals and amplify analog signals to different wireless frequencies, they need radio frequency integrated circuits (RFICs). Most of the patents in RFIC was held by RF Micro Devices from North Carolina, USA and now became Qorvo after merging with TriQuint. In the RFIC chips, you need a few power amplifiers, high-end capacitors manufactured by Murata Manufacturing in Kyoto, Japan. You also need surface acoustic wave (SAW) sensors designed and manufactured by TST Taiwan and Microgate in Shenzhen. You also need a few silicon-on-insulator switches designed by Skyworks Solutions in the USAand manufactured by Skyworks in China. For the antennas components, they are designed and manufactured by Sunway Co. in Shenzhen and Rosenberger (USA) factories based in Shanghai, China. In the age of 5G, Huawei analog devices have to use these devices from the USA, Japan, and China as well.
射频:为了在各种通信信号之间进行多路复用，将模拟信号放大到不同的无线频率，需要射频集成电路(RFICs)。RFIC的大部分专利由美国北卡罗莱纳州的RF Micro Devices持有，与TriQuint合并后成为Qorvo。在RFIC芯片中，你需要一些功率放大器，由日本京都村田制造的高端电容器。您还需要由台湾TST公司和深圳Microgate公司设计制造的表面声波传感器。您还需要一些由美国Skyworks Solutions公司设计并由中国Skyworks公司制造的绝缘硅开关。天线组件由深圳森威公司和中国上海罗森伯格(美国)工厂设计和制造。在5G时代，华为的模拟设备也必须使用来自美国、日本和中国的这些设备。
NFC & Touch: NXP Semiconductors in the Netherland provide NFC solutions for Huawei. And the chip is developed by Infineon in Simens, Germany. Goodix Co in Shenzhen provides the fingerprint sensor. USB Type-C solutions are provided by Shenzhen Everwin Precision.
NFC & Touch:荷兰NXP半导体为华为提供NFC解决方案。该芯片由英飞凌公司在德国西门子开发。深圳固迪克斯公司提供指纹传感器。USB Type-C解决方案由深圳恒赢精密提供。
Fabrication: After HiSilicon integrating all the soft IP and package into one SOC, the design is sent to Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) in Taiwan for physical layout and fabrication. The fabrication process of the SOC chip is a very complex task. For the most important steps, TSMC needs to import mask alignment systems (MAS) designed by ASML from the Netherlands. They also need to use a lot of wafer chemicals from Shin-Etsu in Japan, Siltronic AG from Germany and SUMCO Corporation from Minato in Japan.
制作:海思将所有软IP和封装成一个SOC后，将设计送至台湾台积电(TSMC)进行物理布局和制作。SOC芯片的制作过程是一个非常复杂的任务。对于最重要的步骤，台积电需要从荷兰进口ASML设计的掩模对准系统(MAS)。他们还需要使用大量的日本etsu的晶圆化学品，德国的Siltronic AG和SUMCO，日本的Minato。
Material: However, most of the chemical products and semi-products are imported from China. The most representative one is the rare earth metals in China. For other materials including glasses and steel, BYD in Shenzhen is responsible for manufacturing mobile phone gradient frames and high-density glasses. Shengyi Electronics produces all the PCB board for the phone.
材料:然而，大部分化工产品和半成品都是从中国进口的。其中最具代表性的是中国的稀土金属。用于玻璃、钢材等其他材料，深圳比亚迪负责制造手机梯度框架和高密度玻璃。胜益电子为手机生产所有的PCB板。
Screen: Huawei P30 used Samsung OLED rigid screen but P30 Pro used the OLED soft screen designed by BOE Technology in China. Some screens are also manufactured by LG, Korea and manufactured in Guangzhou, China. Now both Korean and Chinese companies are dominating in the screen market.
屏幕:华为P30采用三星OLED硬屏，而P30 Pro采用京东方科技在中国设计的OLED软屏。一些屏幕也由韩国LG生产，在中国广州生产。现在，韩国和中国公司都在屏幕市场占据主导地位。
Assemble: Huawei then orders all the components from each service provider and ship the components to Foxconn in Zhengzhou, China. Workers in Foxconn assemble all the components together into one complete phone.
组装:然后，华为从每个服务提供商订购所有组件，并将这些组件运送到中国郑州的富士康。富士康的工人将所有部件组装成一部完整的手机。
This is the supply chain for a single phone in Huawei. And this is not even the main product for Huawei but they still managed to beat Apple and become the second largest smartphone company without entering the USA market. Huawei's main strength is its communication infrastructure and solutions. However, it is difficult for me to compile a supplier list since I am not familiar with it.
这是华为一部手机的供应链。这甚至不是华为的主要产品，但他们仍然在没有进入美国市场的情况下，成功地击败了苹果，成为第二大智能手机公司。华为的主要优势在于其通信基础设施和解决方案。然而，由于我对供应商列表并不熟悉，所以编写供应商列表对我来说是很困难的。
Now please count how many these suppliers are from the USA, China, Japan, and Korea. For each company listed above, please go to their own website and check how much fraction of their products are actually sold to Huawei or Chinese market and how much their materials are imported from China. You would be amazed to find that Huawei is normally their biggest customers and they couldn't leave China anymore.
现在请数一下这些供应商有多少来自美国、中国、日本和韩国。对于以上列出的每一家公司，请访问他们自己的网站，查看他们的产品有多少实际销往华为或中国市场，有多少材料是从中国进口的。你会惊讶地发现，华为通常是他们最大的客户，他们再也不能离开中国了。
That means if you kill Huawei, then most of the suppliers would hurt a lot too. Some would die. Most of them are the only high-value companies left in Korea and Japan. They could not suffer a 40% market loss. That would be a huge blow to Korea and Japan economy.
这意味着如果你杀了华为，那么大多数供应商也会受到很大伤害。有些公司会死。其中大多数是韩国和日本仅存的高价值公司。他们不能承受40%的市场损失。这将对韩国和日本经济造成巨大打击。
Clearly, the guy behind trump has no idea of the current situations in the semiconductor industry. I guess most people in Quora didn't know as well.
显然，特朗普背后的人并不了解半导体行业的现状。我猜在论坛上的大多数人也不知道。
Is Huawei dead?
Of course not. Ten years ago, Huawei has already initiated backup plans for various scenarios from the USA government. They even have the extreme backup plans for the scenarios when the whole of China is blocked from using the x86 instruction set.
华为死了吗?
当然不是。十年前，华为已经从美国政府那里启动了各种方案的备份计划。当整个中国都被禁止使用x86指令集时，他们甚至有极端的备份计划。
What would China do?
Let's look at the latest retaliations approaches from China:
中国会怎么做?
让我们看看中国最新的报复手段:
China cuts taxes for chip makers amid rising trade tensions
在贸易紧张局势不断升级之际，中国为芯片制造商减税
China announced that all domestic semiconductor supplier companies would be granted tax-free for five years. They do not have to pay taxes for five years! This means that they can lower their operational costs and beat their foreign competitors. This is really what the USA has been complaining about China. And now China keeps doing regardless of what the USA has to say.
中国宣布，所有国内半导体供应商将享受5年免税待遇。他们五年不用交税!这意味着他们可以降低运营成本，打败外国竞争对手。这就是美国一直在抱怨中国的地方。现在中国不顾美国怎么说，继续这样做。
If Huawei could not find suppliers from the USA, then they will find alternatives, mostly preferably domestic suppliers in China. And those suppliers are exempted from paying to cooperate taxes in China. This would create a huge boost in domestic companies because they get lowered costs and a big customer at the same time.
如果华为找不到来自美国的供应商，他们就会找到替代品，尤其是中国国内的供应商。而这些供应商在中国则无需缴纳合作税。这将给国内企业带来巨大的提振，因为它们在降低成本的同时也获得了一个大客户。
I have been talking with many Chinese scholars in different areas in the semiconductor industries in China. They said the reason why Huawei purchases intellectual properties from so many sources is not that Huawei didn't have the technology, but it is more that for the most the area they do not bother to reinvent the wheels and they want to bind the interests with the rest of the world.
我与中国半导体行业不同领域的许多学者进行了交流。他们说华为之所以从许多来源购买知识产权不是华为没有这项技术,而是他们不想在大多数的领域费心的去重新发明轮子,他们想绑定与世界其它地区的利益。
There are indeed a few key technologies China still lags behind, such as the fabrication process and RF chips. But we should know how did China manage to come so far. Thanks to the technology blockade and sanctions in the Coordinating Committee for Multilateral Export Controls in Paris, China is banned to access all the high-end technology. Thanks to them, China can have the opportunity to "reinvent the wheels" on its own.
中国确实还有一些关键技术落后，比如制造工艺和射频芯片。但我们应该知道中国是如何走到这一步的。由于巴黎多边出口管制协调委员会的技术封锁和制裁，中国被禁止获得所有高端技术。多亏了他们，中国才有机会自己"重新发明轮子"。
Meanwhile, metros in Beijing already installed 5G coverage thanks to Huawei technology.
与此同时，得益于华为的技术，北京地铁已经安装了5G网络。
But now, I am sitting in the underground in London. My phone can not connect to any signal. So I have to read offline posts about a wonderful post-Brexit article. People around me are all looking at offline novels, on their Huawei phones.
但是现在，我正坐在伦敦的地铁里。我的手机连不上任何信号。因此，我不得不阅读有关英国退欧后一篇精彩文章的离线帖子。我周围的人都在用华为手机看线下小说。
I hope you could learn something more about the situation as well.
我也希望你能多了解一些情况。
Talk is cheap. Show me the code.
— Linus Torvalds
空谈误国，实干兴邦
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