2030年或2050年，我们的交通出行会是怎样？且听宝马集团研发董事傅乐希在 2019世界新能源大会上怎么说。

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二十多年来，宝马集团的战略目标一直期望在可持续出行方面取得技术和创新的领导地位。我们的目标着眼长远。2030年或2050年，我们的交通出行会是怎样？

Since more than 20 years BMW’s strategic goal is to achieve sustainable mobility by technology and innovation leadership. Our goals are long term orientated. How will mobility be in 2030 or 2050?

多年来，我们孜孜不倦， 一直在两大领域，即数字化和可持续传动技术，研探多种未来创新技术，包括涉及全面互联、人工智能、自动驾驶、下一代高效动力发动机、电动出行及氢燃料电池等六个核心话题。

We are developing tomorrow’s innovative technologies in two focus areas: digitalization and sustainable drive train technologies. These lead to the six core topics shown here: connectivity, artificial intelligence, autonomous driving, Efficient Dynamics NEXT engines, electro-mobility and hydrogen.

我们确信，宝马的这些目标与中国的未来出行愿景完美契合，尤其新能源汽车和智能互联汽车。

We are convinced that these targets of BMW have a perfect fit to China’s vision of future mobility. On one side the new energy vehicles (NEVs) and on the other side smart cities and intelligent connected vehicles (ICVs).

对于宝马而言，中国的重要性无与伦比：中国是迄今为止我们最大的单一销售市场；现在，全球五分之一的BMW汽车在中国生产，未来的比重还将增加。

For us at BMW, China is of utmost importance:It is by far our largest market；Already today every fifth BMW is produced in China and in the near future it will be significantly more.

中国也是我们发展最快的研发中心，中国的客户是对数字化需求要求最高的群体，越来越多的中国公司正成为数字化和移动出行领域的技术领导者，而且，中国正以一贯而着眼长远的方式推动这些变革。

China is my fastest growing R&D hub，Chinese customers already today are the most demanding customers referring all digital developments. More and more Chinese companies are becoming technology leaders in the areas of digitalization and electro-mobility. And China is driving these changes in a consistent and long term orientated way.

因此，我认为中国将先于世界其他地区，成为首个真正实现智慧城市的国家。作为宝马集团，我们希望在这一发展进程中成为中国积极而可靠的合作伙伴。

Therefore, I consider that China will be the first country that substantially achieves the smart city ahead of the other regions. We as BMW want to be active and reliable partners for China in this development.

我们的目标是通过在中国的两家合资公司，四个核心研发领域（自动化、互联化、电动化和共享化）探寻各项前瞻性创新技术。

Our intention is to develop tomorrow’s innovative technologies in China in two joint ventures and via four core topics shown here (autonomous, connected, electrified and shared).

我们在中国已经建立起功能完备的研发体系，位于沈阳、北京和上海。我们正加速推进研发速度，将“在中国、为中国”战略转变为“在中国，为中国，为全球”战略。

We've developed full-function R&D structures in China, located in Shenyang, Beijing and Shanghai. They will grow fast because we are shifting gears from ‘Creation in China for China’ towards ‘Creation in China, for China and for the world’.

比如，即将面世的iX3将在中国生产，并出口全球。我们也将与中国一流的企业合作共同研发突破性关键技术。我们和长城汽车公司合资公司光束汽车也将生产MINI电动车。

The upcoming iX3 for example will be produced in China for the whole world. We want to team up with Chinese top players in this game-changing technology, too. We have the same intent for the future fully electric MINIs in our Spotlight JV with Great Wall.

例如，2018年起，宝马与阿里巴巴开展合作，有望成为中国首批豪华汽车品牌提供家车远程服务。同时，我们与宁德时代也在电池技术领域进行面向未来的战略性长期合作。

For example: BMW is expected to be one of the first premium auto brands to offer Home-to-Vehicle Remote Services in China. We have been cooperating with Alibaba on this since 2018. And we have already a long lasting strategic collaboration with CATL in the field of battery technologies.

在北京、上海颁布当地相关政策法规后，宝马在上海成为第一个获得4级自动驾驶路试许可牌照的国际豪华汽车品牌。

And I am delighted that BMW was the first international premium auto brand to develop and drive Level 4 (FAD) vehicles on public roads in Shanghai, since the municipal governments of Beijing and Shanghai released their local stimulation policy and regulations.

在自动驾驶领域，我们也加入了百度阿波罗计划，并将在大数据和人工智能层面与腾讯进行合作。

In this field of autonomous driving we joined the Apollo alliance of Baidu and cooperate with Tencent in the field of big data and artificial intelligence.

全球的汽车市场将继续增长。据最新IHS预测报告显示，到2025年全球汽车销量将达到1亿辆。

The global vehicle market will continue to grow.The latest IHS forecasts estimate that 100 million cars will be sold in 2025.

可以看到，搭载可持续传动技术的车辆发展空间最大。全球电动出行方兴未艾，在不同地区的需求和发展程度也不尽相同。大家都期望中国成为这个新能源市场的领头羊。

Therefore sustainable drivetrain technologies have highest priority.The pace at which electric mobility will develop is uncertain and will be very different in the various regions of the world- everybody expects China being the lead market.

到2025年，我们预计全球15%至25%的汽车将实现电动化——包括插电式混合动力和纯电动汽车。到2023年，我们将提前两年提供25款电动汽车。

For 2025, we estimate that between 15% and 25% of our vehicles worldwide will be electrified - these include plug-in hybrid and all-electric cars. We will offer more than 25 electrified vehicles by then.

毋庸置疑，电动出行更像一场马拉松，而不是短跑冲刺。15年前，宝马便已经开始启动这一计划。

It is still true that electro-mobility is a marathon and not a sprint. We started the implementation already 15 years ago.

可以看到，新能源汽车的市场渗透率很大程度取决于以下几个方面：电池资源紧俏度、鼓励政策吸引度以及充电设施充裕度。

Market penetration is strongly determined by the availability of resources for batteries, attractive incentives for the customers and the necessary charging infrastructure.

宝马集团作为一个全球范围运营的高档出行领域供应商，技术的开放性和生产的灵活性是取得成功的关键。

For a worldwide operating mobility provider like BMW technology openness and flexibility are key success factors.

鉴于此，我们将进一步提高并研发清洁且高效的内燃机，并结合48V电气系统作为一个标准。

We therefore：Will further improve and develop our clean and efficient combustion engines and will combine them with 48V systems as a standard.

我们将研发更好电动性能、纯电动里程达80-120公里的插电式混合式动力汽车。

We develop plug-in hybrid cars with higher electric performance and electric ranges between 80-120 kilometers.

集团旗下所有品牌（BMW、MINI、Rolls-Royce和BMW摩托车）都将提供全系列电动车型。

We will offer pure electric vehicles for all our brands BMW, MINI, Rolls-Royce and BMW motorcycles.

到2025年我们将研发可扩展的燃料电池动力系统。我个人认为，这项技术将在轻型和重型汽车上展现比乘用车更大的优势。

And we will develop scalable fuel cell powertrains by 2025, even if I personally see this technology more useful in light and heavy duty vehicles than in passenger cars.

在生产灵活性层面，面向世界销售的BMW X3是一个最好的例子，该车型拥有三种动力模式，即内燃机、插电式混合动力和纯电力驱动。而大家都知道，BMW iX3将只在沈阳的大东工厂生产。

Our worldwide X3 offer is a good example: It will be available with combustion engines, plug-in hybrid powertrain and as a full battery electric vehicle. This iX3 will be exclusively produced in our Dadong plant in Shenyang.

那宝马如何实现这样的生产灵活性？

But how can we achieve this flexibility?

一方面，我们的车辆架构和生产工厂可以以模块化的方式集成所有动力传动系统。

On the one side our vehicle architectures and production plants can integrate all powertrains in a modular approach.

另一方面，我们的第五代eDrive电力驱动技术同样具有可拓展性，包括充电单元、电力电子、电机和电池及模块等所有方面。

And on the other side our already 5th generation of electric drivetrains will have the same scalability referring: Charging units、Power electronics、E-motors、Battery cell and modules.

当然，所有技术发展都需以客户安全为首要诉求。15年的研发经验让我们建立起全流程研发能力，包括：

And in all areas: Customer safety first. With our fifteen years of implementation experience we have established an End-to-End competence:

通过与矿业公司的合作，直接获取原材料，尤其是钴和锂；企业内部工程能力和8项涉及电力电子、电子电机和电池技术的合作；电池的二次利用和回收。例如，我们携手中国企业邦普进行合作。

Direct access to the raw materials - especially Cobalt and Lithium by direct collaboration with mining companies. In house engineering competence and collaborations referring power electronics, E-motors and battery technologies. Second life reuse and recycling of battery cells. Here for example we cooperate with our Chinese local partner Brunp.

接下来，我将聚焦数字化的创新领域，全面互联、自动驾驶和人工智能的广泛应用是关键主题。

Now I would like to focus on the innovation fields of digitalization: Connectivity, autonomous driving and the extensive usage of artificial intelligence are the key topics here.

如同2013年的BMW i3之于电动出行一样BMW iNext也将再次成为我们的创新孵化器，在以下几方面成为先锋产品：5G互联、L3级和L4级自动驾驶、基于人工智能技术的创新服务。

And again we will use a progressive BMW i car as our innovation incubator. Like the i3 was an enabler for electro mobility in 2013 the BMW i next will be the pilot for:5G Connectivity、Level 3 and 4 autonomous driving、And innovative services based on latest AI technologies.

这款车不是科幻小说——它将在2021年底登陆中国市场。数字化将使全新且个性化的移动出行概念成为可能。因此，宝马早已从机械工程向高科技转型。

This car is not science fiction – it will be available in China at large scale already at the end of 2021.The digitalization will enable new and personalized concepts of mobility. Therefore we at BMW are already in the transformation from mechanical engineering to tech.

慕尼黑的自动驾驶研发中心拥有1500名工程师，正是一个最好例证：

Our Campus for autonomous driving with around 1500 engineers is a good example for our new approaches:

敏捷灵活的软件开发，满足不同的功能需求并缩短软件迭代周期；与高科技公司、初创公司、一流企业和整车厂商进行合作；最后，与按需出行公司和市政机构共同开展项目合作，为智慧城市实施新型移动出行方案。

Agile software development with feature teams and short sprints. Colocation and cooperation with tech companies, startups, TIER 1s, and OEMs. And finally common projects with on demand mobility companies and municipals to implement new mobility concepts for smart cities.

我们积极寻找机会，与更多的中国伙伴进行这样的战略性合作。因为中国不仅将成为数字化领域的市场领导者，更将是领先的数字化供应商。

And we proactively explore opportunities to have such strategic partnerships with more and more Chinese stakeholders. Because China will be not only the lead market in the field of digitalization, it will also be the lead provider.

最后，向用户提供安全可靠产品，需要一个长期稳定且可预测的政策框架。

Finally A long term predictable and stable policy framework is necessary to bring robust and safe products to the customers.

持续的新能源汽车鼓励政策和基础设施的建设是确保新能源汽车可持续发展的关键，尤其在直接补贴逐步取消后，用户行为的改变需要时间。

Continuous NEV incentivation and infrastructure are key to ensure sustainable NEV growth after the phasing out of direct subsidies, customer behavior change requires time.

创新而灵活的立法对于培育先进技术至关重要，例如现行的道路交通法规限制在高速公路进行自动驾驶测试。智慧城市的发展离不开政府、社会和行业之间的协同合作。

Innovative and flexible legislation is essential to nurture advanced technologies for example the current road traffic law restrains automated driving tests on highways. The smart city development relies on the collaboration crossing government, society and industries.

中国不仅拥有世界一流的基础设施，也有众多出类拔萃的高学识、极具前瞻思维的卓越人才，更有优秀的政策体系和行业管理，我对中国未来所呈现的发展机遇充满信心。

With China’s world-class infrastructure, exceptionally well-educated and future-oriented people, and reliable partners in politics and administration, I am very confident about the opportunities that lie ahead.

让我们撸起袖子加油干。

Let us roll up our sleeves to work harder.

（来源：经济日报·外企头条工作室记者：陈颐 朱琳 责编：张苇杭）